Last price as of Mon, Jul 13, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Cocoa down $435 (-7.0%) on improved West African supply outlook and softer industrial demand. Cotton up $4.01 (+5.2%) on adverse weather in key growing regions. Crude up $1.29 (+1.8%) on renewed US-Iran strikes raising Strait of Hormuz supply disruption risks. Silver down $1.05 (-1.7%) on stronger dollar from higher oil prices and risk-off flows. Nat Gas down $0.048 (-1.6%) on milder weather outlook and reduced LNG export flows. Tin (SHFE $/mt) down $861 (-1.6%) on consolidating market amid weak trading and AI demand skepticism.
Kicker: Buy June 2027 WTI crude calendar spread (long Jun27/short Jun26) on OPEC+ supply discipline and Middle East risks, per recent JPMorgan client notes.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Oil prices rose in early Asian trade after the U.S. conducted multiple waves of strikes on Iranian military targets Sunday and Iranian forces fired at commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Front-month WTI crude futures climbed 3.2% to $73.70 per barrel while Brent rose 3.1% to $78.38. Read →
New clashes between the US and Iran rippled through global markets on Monday, pushing up oil prices while sending stocks lower. Prices for Brent crude climbed as traders worried fresh clashes could restrict flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Read →
Gold declined after the US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes over the weekend, sending energy prices higher and raising prospects for interest-rate hikes. Bullion fell as much as 1.4% to near $4,060 an ounce on Monday. Read →
Base metals retreated after renewed hostilities between the US and Iran fueled concerns over global economic growth and clouded the outlook for industrial commodities. Higher energy costs and potential supply disruptions stoked inflation and rate-hike expectations. Read →
Asia's LNG imports are poised to hit a six-month high in July at 23.05 million metric tons, up 6% from June, driven by China. Europe's imports are set to fall to the lowest since September 2024 at 6.90 million tons as U.S. cargoes shift to Asia. Read →
Brent rose $2.67 or 3.51% to $78.68 and WTI $2.48 or 3.47% to $73.89 after weekend US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian attacks on Gulf facilities and claims the strait is closed. Vessel traffic through the strait, which carries one-fifth of global oil, fell to a five-week low. The escalation casts doubt on the interim US-Iran peace deal and adds risk premium to prices. Read →
Jason Karaian and Lisa Friedman · The New York Times · Sun, Jul 12, 2026
Brent climbed more than 4% to $79 a barrel Sunday after US strikes on 140 Iranian targets and Iranian missile/drone responses. Daily ship traffic through the strait dropped sharply to as low as 6-22 vessels versus 130+ pre-war. Markets priced renewed risks to one-fifth of global oil flows amid fragile ceasefire talks. Read →
Brent futures hit $79.26, highest since June 22, up over 4% Monday amid US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian attacks on regional US allies. Traffic through the strait fell to multi-week lows with only a handful of transits tracked overnight. Analysts expect prices to hold in upper $70s near-term on persistent geopolitical risk despite slow demand recovery. Read →
US 3-2-1 crack spread reached record $64.58/bbl on July 8 amid Middle East tensions, Russian diesel export ban, and multi-year low fuel inventories. The surge boosts Gulf Coast and global refinery profitability even as crude prices fluctuate on geopolitics. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Freeport LNG major maintenance slashes feedgas demand, pressuring Henry Hub prices lower amid ample storage.
Unexpected maintenance at Freeport LNG reduced feedgas demand starting July 10. Combined with robust Lower 48 production and the recent storage build, this pushed futures deeper into negative territory. Golden Pass LNG ramp provided minor offset but overall export support weakened. Read →
Feedgas deliveries to Freeport LNG dropped to about 1 Bcf/d on July 10 as the facility started major maintenance expected to last through late August. This outage directly reduces LNG export demand for US gas. NYMEX prices responded with further declines below $3. Read →
Freeport LNG announced the start of major maintenance on its pretreatment and liquefaction units. Data showed sharp drop in gas flows to the Texas terminal. Domestic storage surpluses continued to grow despite heat-driven power demand, adding downward pressure on prices. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF jumps 3%+ as US-Iran Hormuz tensions halt Qatar LNG flows and slow tanker traffic.
Tsvetana Paraskova · OilPrice.com · Mon, Jul 13, 2026, 2:45 AM ET
August 2026 TTF futures rose 3.35% to $59.51/MWh after renewed US-Iran clashes slowed Strait of Hormuz traffic and prompted Qatar to suspend maritime activity, threatening LNG exports from Ras Laffan. Europe faces tighter supply while refilling storage ahead of winter as Middle East cargoes stall. The move follows partial recovery in Qatari shipments after earlier June easing. Read →
Rotterdam LNG bunker prices surged $52/mt mirroring front-month TTF gains, driven by renewed US-Iran tensions and reduced Hormuz tanker transits. QatarEnergy extended force majeure on some LNG shipments to Asia and Europe into August or early September. JKM front-month rose $0.54/MMBtu to $16.07/MMBtu over the week amid spot cargo competition. Read →
TTF averaged near $16/MMBtu and JKM $17.5/MMBtu in Q2 2026, their highest since 2022, after Hormuz disruption flipped the arb to favor Asia and diverted cargoes. Prices eased after June interim agreement but remain elevated versus 2025. Europe saw over 10% drop in LNG imports while Asia absorbed more spot supply. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Newcastle thermal coal futures hover near 3-month lows at $129/t as Indian import demand stays muted amid higher domestic output and weak rupee.
A few Chinese thermal coal miners tested small price increases on select grades July 8, but the broader market trended lower. End-use demand remained insufficient to reverse the decline across most grades. The update highlights persistent softness in domestic mine-mouth pricing. Read →
China's import thermal coal market stayed under pressure July 8 as typhoon activity cut power demand in southern and eastern coastal regions. High power plant stockpiles compounded the effect. The combination weighs on seaborne buying interest and pricing. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA July WASDE cuts new-crop corn ending stocks 170M bushels below June to 1.79B, lifts soybean production to record 4.475B bushels.
USDA lowered 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion on higher old-crop feed use and increased exports. Soybean production rose 40 million bushels to a record 4.475 billion on added harvested acres while ending stocks held at 310 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks fell 22 million bushels to 722 million bushels. Tighter corn carryout supports prices ahead of pollination weather. Read →
USDA reduced 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion bushels, exceeding trade expectations, while raising exports. Soybean production increased to a record 4.475 billion bushels with ending stocks unchanged. Global corn stocks also declined. Lower stocks tighten the balance sheet and add support to corn prices. Read →
Private exporters reported 264,000 metric tons of soybeans sold to China for 2026/27 delivery. Additional soybean sales to China were announced on July 9 and July 8. The sales signal continued Chinese buying interest in U.S. soybeans. Read →
Ethiopia crossed $3 billion in coffee export earnings for the first time, driven by post-production capacity tripling in five years. The milestone highlights growth in African agricultural exports and potential for further value-added processing. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Zinc and aluminum prices react to Korean smelter fire and EGA alumina restart amid Middle East supply risks.
A fire broke out in the sulphuric acid unit at Young Poong's Seokpo zinc smelter in North Gyeongsang province on July 9 and was extinguished within an hour with no casualties or leaks reported. The 400,000 t/yr capacity smelter supplies most of its sulphuric acid domestically. LME zinc prices rose as much as 3.4% to $3,638/t on supply concerns for the byproduct used in copper, nickel and fertilizers. Read →
LME three-month aluminium dropped 1.8% to $3,143.50/t after Emirates Global Aluminium restarted alumina production at its Al Taweelah refinery in Abu Dhabi following a 3.5-month outage from March attacks. Output is expected to reach 50% capacity within days and full levels by year-end. The metal still heads for a 1.8% weekly gain despite Gulf supply recovery signals. Read →
PT Kalimantan Aluminium Industry, owned by PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia, made its first primary aluminium exports in June, shipping 31,494 t to the US and 3,569 t to South Korea. The US seeks alternatives amid Gulf disruptions that lifted premiums to records. The smelter targets up to 350,000 t of ingot sales this year. Read →
Fire erupted at Young Poong's 728,000 t/yr Seokpo zinc smelter around 12:36 local time on July 9, triggering a level-one emergency response over hazardous gas risks. The blaze started in the facility and prompted evacuations; cause undetermined. Disruption risks affect domestic sulphuric acid supply, with 200,000 t/yr typically exported. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · BHP Port Hedland strike threat and CMRG Fortescue curbs lift iron ore futures amid China steel mill losses.
DCE iron ore futures fell below CNY 750 per ton as Chinese steel mills reported mounting losses from high coking coal costs and weak finished steel prices. Global shipments last week totaled 30.38 million tons, down 14% week-on-week. Planned blast furnace maintenance is expected to further cut near-term demand. Read →
Iron ore prices posted their strongest weekly gain since early May on the looming BHP Port Hedland strike and ongoing CMRG restrictions on Fortescue products. The rally occurred despite softening Chinese steel fundamentals and high port inventories. Market participants are watching for further supply disruptions from the July 16 action. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Mideast strikes and Hormuz fears lift oil, revive rate-hike bets and weigh on gold prices.
Pablo Sinha and Swati Verma · Reuters · Mon, Jul 13, 4:15 AM ET
Spot gold fell 1.5% to $4,059.11/oz as U.S.-Iran strikes prompted Iranian claims of Strait of Hormuz closure, sending oil up 4% and the dollar and yields higher. Silver dropped 2.9% to $58.14/oz, platinum 1.8% and palladium 2.3%. Traders now price a 72% chance of a September Fed rate hike. Read →
Spot gold fell 0.9% to $4,084.80/oz in early Asian trade after U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian fire on Hormuz vessels. ANZ Research said the escalation raises odds the Fed keeps rates higher for longer, pressuring non-yielding assets. Read →
Official reserves rose a net 41 tonnes in May, led by Poland (18t) and China (10t, its 20th straight month). Year-to-date Poland leads with 64t; 89% of surveyed central bankers expect global gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China launches Beijing-backed mining investment firm to expand overseas critical minerals control.
Annie Lee and Heng Xie · Bloomberg · Mon, Jul 13, 2026, 3:01 AM ET
China launched Guangyan International Investment, a new Beijing-backed vehicle under the National Development and Reform Commission, to provide equity investments, compliance support and market advice for overseas mining assets including lithium, cobalt, nickel and rare earths. The move counters US and European efforts to diversify supply chains away from Chinese dominance in processing and extraction. It strengthens Beijing's long-term grip on strategic minerals essential for EVs, batteries, semiconductors and defense amid rising geopolitical competition. Read →
Ontario granted Rock Tech Lithium $262,500 via its Critical Minerals Innovation Fund to test crude tall oil, a pulp-and-paper byproduct, as a flotation reagent in lithium processing with partners Thunder Bay Pulp and Paper and Queen's University. The project aims to localize reagent supply, cut emissions and costs, and strengthen Ontario's mine-to-converter lithium chain including the Georgia Lake project. It marks the second CMIF award for Rock Tech and supports broader provincial goals for domestic battery materials production. Read →
Lynas Rare Earths signed a long-term partnership with South Korea's JS Link to develop a 3,000 tonnes-per-annum NdFeB permanent magnet factory in Kuantan, Malaysia, near Lynas' existing advanced materials plant. JS Link will build the facility following a 2025 MoU; Lynas will supply rare earth materials exclusively under a deal running to 2038. The project expands Lynas' downstream capabilities in non-Chinese permanent-magnet supply chains for EVs, wind and electronics. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz clashes and Iran closure claims slash transits, spiking tanker rates and stranding vessels as US strikes hit targets.
Lloyd’s List · Lloyd's List · Sun, Jul 12, 11:00 PM ET
Iran struck the Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy in the Strait of Hormuz on July 11, causing engine damage and fire; the crew abandoned ship. This marks the fourth attack on commercial vessels since July 6, prompting Iran to declare the strait closed and the US to launch a third round of strikes on Iranian targets. Maritime security threat level rose to 'Severe', with transits possible only on the southern route near Oman amid heightened risks to oil, LNG, and container flows. Read →
Ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply after weekend US-Iran clashes, with visible AIS data showing no traffic despite conflicting claims of openness. Iran attacked the containership GFS Galaxy and declared the strait closed until US interference ends, while Centcom disputed the closure and noted ongoing strikes on Iranian military sites. The disruption threatens recovery in Gulf crude, product, and LNG exports amid elevated security risks. Read →
Cosco Shipping Energy expects first-half net profit to rise 141% to $664 million, driven by surging tanker rates from the Hormuz crisis. All vessels temporarily stranded in the Gulf have now exited the strait safely. Elevated earnings are expected to persist as tanker rates remain high due to ongoing disruptions. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU ETS overhaul plans for slower cuts and more free permits to industry drive the complex ahead of July 17 proposal.
Parliament groups stake out positions on EU ETS flexibility ahead of the major overhaul proposal. Other updates include EU centralizing Article 6 credit buying recommendations and VCM reports on relationship capital and transition credits. These developments signal ongoing policy and market adjustments in compliance and voluntary carbon spaces. Read →
Carbon Pulse · Recent (within last 24h per ticker context)
EU allowance prices stayed in a narrow range as trading volumes declined ahead of key policy developments. The lull reflects anticipation of the European Commission's July 17 ETS review proposal on supply and flexibility measures. Lower activity underscores how upcoming regulatory changes are dominating near-term market sentiment for EUAs. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Hyperliquid RWA open interest hits new ATH of $3.6B as total OI reaches $11B record.
Hyperliquid announced its real-world asset perpetual futures open interest reached a new all-time high of $3.6 billion. Total open interest across the platform also hit a 2026 high of $11 billion. The milestone underscores surging trader demand for 24/7 on-chain exposure to tokenized commodities and other RWAs. Read →
Ondo Finance launched the first US custodial tokenized versions of BlackRock’s IVV ETF and Micron shares on Ethereum, delivering full shareholder rights via Broadridge. JPMorgan’s tokenized money-market fund grew to about $693 million. Total tokenized RWA market value sits near $33.5 billion in liquid on-chain value. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · US rig count rises for fourth straight week as EU probes Saipem-Subsea 7 merger.
Italian energy contractor Saipem's merger with Norwegian peer Subsea 7 faces a full EU antitrust investigation over competition concerns. The European Commission is expected to launch the in-depth review by July 22. The deal targets subsea services in oil and gas, raising regulatory hurdles for sector consolidation. Read →
U.S. energy firms added rigs for the fourth consecutive week, with the total oil and gas rig count rising by one to 581. This marks the first such streak since early June and lifts the count 44 rigs, or 8%, above year-ago levels. The increase signals sustained drilling activity in oil and gas. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · India rejects quick US trade deal, refuses agriculture concessions amid new tariff threats.
India declined to rush a bilateral trade agreement with the US, citing unwillingness to compromise on agriculture protections or accept unfavorable terms without tariff advantages. US officials had pushed for progress ahead of potential new duties. The standoff directly affects US agricultural exports like soybeans and other commodities to India, one of the world's largest markets. Read →
Following a US Supreme Court ruling, the White House confirmed India faces a temporary 10% tariff under new Section 122 authority as part of ongoing trade negotiations. The rate could adjust from prior reciprocal levels amid broader tariff reviews. This adds immediate cost pressure on Indian commodity imports into the US, including metals and energy-related goods. Read →
The UK government refreshed its Integrated Online Tariff tool for importers to check commodity codes, duties, and VAT rates. The update supports accurate classification for goods entering the UK market. It matters for commodity traders handling energy, metals, and agricultural products subject to post-Brexit or evolving trade rules. Read →
Egypt's electricity regulator released detailed tariffs effective April 2026 for extra-high voltage users, including distribution companies and industrial consumers like KIMA. Rates range from 184 to 189 Pt/kWh depending on category. The policy sets the cost framework for energy-intensive commodity production and consumption in the region. Read →
Energy Transfer published the latest FERC tariff filings for the Dakota Access Pipeline, including rules and regulations effective now. The update covers transportation rates for crude oil from North Dakota to Illinois. Pipeline tariff changes directly influence US Midwest and Gulf Coast crude pricing and logistics costs. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders highlight tankers avoiding the Strait of Hormuz amid US strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure at Kharg Island. This revives geopolitical risk premiums in crude, with Brent pushing higher and volatility expected to rise sharply. Discussions focus on potential supply disruptions to global diesel and petroleum products. Read →
Technical analysts point to a bullish flag on the 4-hour gold chart as momentum builds for a strong upside breakout. Multiple confluences including prior diagonal patterns reinforce the bullish case amid ongoing market uncertainty. Traders see potential for rapid gains if the pattern resolves higher. Read →
Traders emphasize uranium's clean setup with spot prices stable near $85 despite doubled contracted demand from global reactor projects. No swing producers can quickly respond to supply gaps, unlike copper or oil. Discussions tie it to AI power needs and energy security themes. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Samantha Dart covers natural gas supply risks from Iran conflict length, market dynamics, and related energy topics in a multi-guest Surveillance episode focused on finance and commodities. Watch/Listen →
Eric Nuttall critiques market confusion between exports and production amid Iran tensions, warning of potential energy supply issues and calling out apparent apathy in financial oil pricing despite disruptions. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.