Monday, September 28, 2026

Crude up $3.55 (+3.4%) on Trump rejecting Iranian peace proposal. The rally began with a $2 move higher late Friday into Saturday morning following an 8:36pm NY time Friday evening…

Saturday, September 26, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, September 25, 2026

Brent down $1.52 (-1.4%) and WTI down $1.65 (-1.7%) this morning. Crude had traded intraday Thursday (yesterday) up 5% until a story broke by Reuters around 12noon NY time that US…

Thursday, September 24, 2026

Crude up $2.21 (+2.1%) on persistent US-Iran diplomatic uncertainty and limited progress in talks. Xi meets Trump at the White House later today. Dutch TTF up $2.99 (+4.2%) on Euro…

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Crude is quiet today following yesterday’s heavy news day with Saudis announcing the east west pipeline re-opening, and US Iran talks in New York. China’s Xi at the White House tom…

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Brent $99.73, down $0.61 (-0.6%) and WTI (Nov26) around $91, down $1 (-1%). Crude had been slightly higher this morning until a story broken (in Japanese) by Japan’s Kyodo News fro…

Monday, September 21, 2026

Brent is near $102, down about $2 (-2%), WTI around $94, on hopes of diplomacy. Trump said he would “probably” meet Iran’s Pezeshkian in New York this week. Trump is meeting GCC le…

Saturday, September 19, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, September 18, 2026

Brent $102 and WTI $100 on Friday, extending a third day of declines after Thursday’s close at $104.82 and $101.91. Saudi plans to restore about half of the damaged East-West pipel…

Thursday, September 17, 2026

Brent $105, down around $1 (-1%) and WTI $102 on Saudis offering additional crude to Asian buyers via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman’s Sohar port, reducing immediate tightness fro…

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Crude down this morning on surprise US API crude inventory (4:30pm ET Tuesday) build of 7 million barrels (expectation was for a fall of 1 mil). Watch EIA data this morning (10:30a…

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Brent $108.35, up $2.67 (+2.5%) and WTI Crude $104.02, up $2.63 (+2.6%) on Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown since last Thursday and Oman Monday (yesterday) talks deferred. Full pi…

Monday, September 14, 2026

Brent $107.84 (+$3.23, +3.1%; physical over $120) and WTI $103.38 (+$3.33, +3.3%) after Saudi shut the East-West pipeline following Thursday’s drone strikes. Friday’s dip and weeke…

Saturday, September 12, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, September 11, 2026

Brent $105, down about $3 (3%), WTI $100, down $3, after an FT story around 8:20 pm ET Thursday: Iran and Gulf states to meet in a push for a Hormuz deal. Oman is brokering a tempo…

Thursday, September 10, 2026

Crude up $1 (+1%) with Brent futures $101 and WTI $98. Cash physical Brent is $109. Since last Friday (Sep 5) the US destroyed about 8–10 Iranian oil tankers, following Iranian att…

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Brent crude futures $100.56 up $2.64 (+2.7%) and WTI $95.06 up $2.03 (+2.2%). Cash (dated) Brent is now trading almost $108 so physical markets are much tighter than futures exchan…

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Crude up $2.43 (+2.5%) on attacks halting Saudi energy facilities and escalating US-Iran tensions threatening Strait of Hormuz flows. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis hit on Aramco oil…

Monday, September 7, 2026

Brent $97.39, up $1.11 (+1.2%) and WTI $92.17, up $0.69 (+0.8%) on US-Iran strikes on tankers and Iran’s new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz stoking supply disruption…

Saturday, September 5, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, September 4, 2026

Brent holds for a second day around $95 and WTI $91 with the Monday-Tuesday rally stalling back on Wednesday evening when Trump declared military action “ending soon”. OPEC+ meetin…

Thursday, September 3, 2026

Brent holds $96 (WTI $92), but upward momentum from earlier in the week has stalled as Trump commented Weds evening at 5:27pm ET that he does not expect the latest bombing campaign…

Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Crude oil rallied $2 (to $92 WTI before selling off) overnight, then faded (to $90 WTI $95 Brent) Conflicting shipping data: some trackers showed tanker crossings slumping to just…

Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Palladium down $38 (-2.8%), Silver down $1.61 (-2.4%) and Platinum down $26 (-1.4%), all on hawkish Fed signals from Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole lifting rate-hike odds and stronger…

Monday, August 31, 2026

Crude up almost $3 (+3%) to $86 (WTI) and $91 (Brent) as US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the strait. This happened just before 4:39pm ET Sunday eve…

Saturday, August 29, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, August 28, 2026

Cotton up $3.49 (+4.0%) on tight global stocks, US weather risks and strong Chinese reserve buying. Cocoa up $220 (+3.6%) on downgraded 2026/27 West African crop forecasts amid dis…

Thursday, August 27, 2026

Coffee down $11.8 (-3.7%) on accelerating Brazil harvest progress and rising supply expectations. Dutch TTF down $1.27 (-1.9%) on easing geopolitical risk premium after US-Iran de-…

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Dutch TTF down $3.62 (-5.4%) on Iran-Oman talks over temporary Strait of Hormuz navigational corridor easing LNG supply disruption fears. Crude down $2.38 (-3.0%) on Iran-Oman talk…

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Crude down almost $3 (-3%) as a Chinese official announced at 4:20am ET this morning that it would not adhere to the “Operation Economic Outcast” expanded secondary sanctions annou…

Monday, August 24, 2026

Cocoa down $169 (-2.8%) on Ghana 2026/27 crop estimate cut to 650kt (-13%). Sugar down $0.43 (-2.4%) on long liquidation and profit-taking after multi-week rally to 14-month highs.…

Saturday, August 22, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, August 21, 2026

Precious metals complex higher: Platinum up $64 (+3.5%), Palladium up $27 (+2.0%), Silver up $1.66 (+2.4%), Gold up $70 (1.6%) on US Treasury increasing buyback operations lowering…

Thursday, August 20, 2026

Cocoa down $210 (-3.5%) on exceptional growing conditions fostering new flowering in Ivory Coast and Ghana ahead of main crop harvest. Cotton up $2.70 (+3.2%) on deteriorating US c…

Wednesday, August 19, 2026

Cocoa down $85 (-1.4%) on improved West African growing conditions. Silver down $0.85 (-1.3%) on broad metals retreat amid surging bond yields. JKM up $0.27 (+1.2%) on tighter Asia…

Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Oil cracks continue to skyrocket with diesel refining margins now at record all time highs over $100 per barrel. We could see $250/barrel oil after all as a result of Hormuz. It wi…

Monday, August 17, 2026

Nat Gas down $0.086 (-3.1%) on robust US production and larger-than-expected storage build. Coffee up $6.8 (+2.1%) on drier conditions in Brazil supporting harvest supply prospects…

Saturday, August 15, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, August 14, 2026

Wheat up $13 (+1.9%) on Black Sea supply disruptions from Ukrainian drone strikes halting operations at Russia's Novorossiysk port. Cocoa down $96 (-1.7%). Dutch TTF up $0.70 (+1.2…

Thursday, August 13, 2026

Platinum down $39 (-2.2%) on subdued US inflation report. Crude down $1.77 (-2.1%) on US crude inventories build. Palladium down $28 (-2.1%) on broad precious metals selloff. Silve…

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Silver up $1.95 (+3.0%) on safe-haven buying and industrial demand amid Middle East tensions and softer dollar. Wheat up $19 (+3.0%) on August USDA WASDE report tightening global s…

Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Crude up over $2 (+3%) to $84 (WTI) and $90 (Brent) on hopes for a US-Iran Hormuz deal fading after Trump demands compensation from Tehran. Refined product margins (spread above cr…

Monday, August 10, 2026

Dutch TTF up $2.62 (+4.7%) on persistent Strait of Hormuz LNG supply disruptions tightening European balances. Nat Gas up $0.098 (+3.7%) on ongoing Strait of Hormuz LNG supply shoc…

Saturday, August 8, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, August 7, 2026

Crude Oil recovers to $78 (WTI) and $84 (Brent). Technical traders analyze WTI completing a morning star reversal and potential contracting triangle setups driven by Hormuz develop…

Thursday, August 6, 2026

Cocoa down $269 (-4.5%) on softer industrial demand and lower grindings. Dutch TTF up $2.11 (+4.0%) on Middle East supply disruption concerns. Iron Ore up $1.7 (+1.8%). Zinc (SHFE…

Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Oil market sideways this morning as it awaits details on Iran peace deal. China loosens crisis export controls in a nod toward a return to “normal”. Cocoa up $167 (+2.8%) on West A…

Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Dutch TTF up $2.55 (+4.4%) on Europe entering storage season with levels at 18-year low for the date amid stalled refill and LNG supply risks. Crude up $1.84 (+2.5%) on Iran denyin…

Monday, August 3, 2026

Crude down $4.91 (-5.3%) on Trump announcing peace talks with Iran will resume after canceling planned strike. Iron Ore down $2.2 (-2.3%). HRC down $7 (-1.8%). Sugar up $0.24 (+1.6…

Saturday, August 1, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, July 31, 2026

Hormuz tanker ship-to-ship transfers rebound after slowdown keeping a lid on crude prices. Refining margins are down this morning also. Both flat price crude (recovery in Hormuz fl…

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Oil stable this morning following a volatile start to the week. The big movers today are wheat and the iron ore complex. Wheat up $22 (+3.4%) on Black Sea grain export risks from n…

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Crude up $2.55 (+3.3%) on renewed Middle East hostilities. US base in Jordan intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile attack at about 5:45 ET yesterday evening, Tuesday, July 28, 2…

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Major 6.8 earthquake in Japan at 3:27am ET (4:27pm Japan) this morning. Even with the large magnitude, early reports indicate the damage seems to be relatively manageable. Crude oi…

Monday, July 27, 2026

Crude down around (Brent) -$8 (-8%) to $88.88 (WTI $83) on U.S.-Iran fighting pause amid China finally entering peace negotiations (first reported after the close Friday evening by…

Saturday, July 25, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, July 24, 2026

Crude down $3.28 (-3.8%) to $89 (WTI) and $97 (Brent) following a 7:43pm ET (Wed Jul 24, 2026) NYT story mentioning mediation, and in this case via Iraq. Ongoing backchannel negoti…

Thursday, July 23, 2026

Crude up overnight by $4 to $98 (Brent) after following two Saudi tankers being hit in the Red Sea 70 miles off Saudi by Iran-backed Houthi drones/missiles at 4pm ET yesterday (Wed…

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Crude up $3.80 (+5%) to its highest level in 5 weeks (WTI $88, Brent $95) primarily on US’s Rubio (2am ET this morning during ASEAN summit in Manila) saying Iran 'not serious' abou…

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Silver up $2.34 (+4.1%) on potential resumption of US-Iran peace negotiations easing energy inflation and rate-hike concerns. Coffee up $10.3 (+3.2%). Copper up $0.18 (+2.9%). Plat…

Monday, July 20, 2026

Oil price (WTI was up almost $3 to $85 and Brent over $90) was up over the weekend on US strikes in Iran watching highest prices in a month. However at 3am NY time this (Monday Jul…

Saturday, July 18, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, July 17, 2026

The Hormuz Chokepoint removal has begun: Chevron explores Hormuz bypass pipeline across Syria for Iraqi oil. Iran directs Houthis to prepare Red Sea closure if US strikes power gri…

Thursday, July 16, 2026

Crude (WTI $79, Brent $84) relatively quiet this morning, but refinery margins continue to rally. Hormuz tanker traffic has fallen Thursday to multi-week lows following renewed US…

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Crude oil (WTI $80, Brent $85) stable today following the price rally since the weekend. Brent backwardation (down sloping curve) is hitting a one-month high on the renewed Hormuz…

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Oil Tanker market soars: Baltic Exchange West Africa-China VLCC tanker rate rose to $188,957 per day Monday, up 92% week-on-week to the highest since March 10. Cotton up $4.69 (+6.…

Monday, July 13, 2026

Cocoa down $435 (-7.0%) on improved West African supply outlook and softer industrial demand. Cotton up $4.01 (+5.2%) on adverse weather in key growing regions. Crude up $1.29 (+1.…

Saturday, July 11, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, July 10, 2026

US Nat Gas (Henry Hub) drops almost 10% between today and yesterday to now under $3 following larger than expected weekly inventory builds and Freeport LNG export maintenance annou…

Thursday, July 9, 2026

Oil (crude) rallied yesterday (Wednesday) following the skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz and the US response. Meanwhile no relief at the retail pump as sky high refining margins…

Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Crude up $4.70 (+6.6%) on US revoking Iran's oil export license and fresh strikes amid Strait of Hormuz attacks. Dutch TTF up $2.69 (+5.8%) on Qatari LNG tanker attack in Strait of…

Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Oil up $1 to $69.50 (WTI) as Iran (IRGC) fired missiles at two commercial ships overnight July 6 (Monday night ET). One of the vessels was a Qatari LNG tanker. Both ships damaged b…

Monday, July 6, 2026

Oil sideways in crude markets, but the main show in oil is the refining margins for gasoline and diesel which are rallying again up to $55/barrel (321 NY crack) from pre-crisis sub…

Saturday, July 4, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, July 3, 2026

US equities closed Friday July 3 for the Independence Day holiday. However, CME futures are trading until the afternoon of Friday July 3. So commodity markets are currently open. O…

Thursday, July 2, 2026

Platinum up $25 (+1.5%) on weaker dollar overnight. Crude down $1.08 (-1.5%) on rising shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran talks. Distillate cracks (dies…

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Silver down $1.63 (-2.7%) on strong US economic data reinforcing Fed rate hike expectations. Sugar up $0.39 (+2.6%) on below-average Indian monsoon rains cutting supply prospects.…

Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Nickel (SHFE $/mt) down $326 (-1.9%) on SHFE metals weakness with nickel and aluminium leading declines. JKM up $0.30 (+1.9%). Aluminium (SHFE $/mt) down $54 (-1.8%) on SHFE metals…

Monday, June 29, 2026

Cocoa down $155 (-3.0%) on signs of larger global supplies sparking long liquidation. Platinum down $35 (-2.1%) on higher US interest rate expectations weighing on precious metals.…

Saturday, June 27, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, June 26, 2026

Cotton down $3.18 (-4.0%) on a firmer dollar and cheaper synthetics as weak oil drags polyester costs lower. Crude down $2.63 (-3.6%) on easing supply concerns as tankers resume tr…

Thursday, June 25, 2026

Cotton down $3.08 (-3.9%) on US cotton futures posting midweek losses amid broader commodity weakness. Cocoa up $138 (+2.7%) on heavy rains in Ivory Coast flooding roads and threat…

Wednesday, June 24, 2026

Cocoa up $329 (+7.1%) on short-covering amid heavy rains in Ivory Coast flooding roads and raising brown rot disease risks. Palladium down $65 (-5.3%) on easing geopolitical risk p…

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Silver down $3.16 (-4.8%) on stronger US dollar and Fed rate-hike bets outweighing Iran ceasefire progress. JKM up $0.55 (+3.6%) on supply concerns from Australian strikes and Midd…

Monday, June 22, 2026

Dutch TTF up $1.90 (+4.7%) on signs of progress in US-Iran talks fading and renewed concerns over Europe’s low storage and winter refill needs. Cocoa up $160 (+3.7%) on El Niño ris…

Saturday, June 20, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, June 19, 2026

JKM down $0.51 (-3.2%) on easing Middle East supply risks after US-Iran interim ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening. Dutch TTF up $1.13 (+2.8%) on technical rebound after prio…

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Palladium down $63 (-4.6%) on easing Middle East tensions unwinding risk premium. Platinum down $73 (-4.1%) on easing Middle East tensions unwinding risk premium. Silver down $2.45…

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

JKM down $2.84 (-15.1%) on increased LNG supply normalizing flows to Asia. Dutch TTF down $0.97 (-2.3%) on mild weather and ample LNG arrivals easing European balances. Cotton up $…

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Crude down $1.79 (-2.2%) on US-Iran peace deal reopening Strait of Hormuz. Cocoa up $88 (+2.2%) on short-covering amid El Nino supply risks. Platinum up $30 (+1.7%) on safe-haven b…

Monday, June 15, 2026

Dutch TTF down $2.73 (-5.8%) on US-Iran peace deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz. Cocoa up $210 (+5.3%) on robust Ivory Coast mid-crop arrivals and rising inventories. Crude down $4.5…

Saturday, June 13, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Friday, June 12, 2026

Palladium up $69 (+5.5%) on tariff fears and physically-backed futures launch boosting buying. Dutch TTF down $2.69 (-5.4%) on surging inventories and milder weather forecasts easi…

Thursday, June 11, 2026

Nat Gas down $0.059 (-1.9%) on cooler US temperature forecasts curbing near-term cooling demand. Cotton down $1.27 (-1.6%) on improved US Cotton Belt rainfall boosting crop prospec…

Wednesday, June 10, 2026

Cotton down $1.97 (-2.5%) on improved weather boosting crop prospects and firm dollar. Platinum down $41 (-2.4%) on broad precious metals weakness amid renewed Middle East tensions…

Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Silver down $3.06 (-4.5%) on de-escalation of Iran-Israel hostilities easing safe-haven demand. Crude down $3.24 (-3.3%) on Iran and Israel agreeing to halt attacks boosting hopes…

Monday, June 8, 2026

Oil prices jumped more than $4 a barrel on Israeli strikes hitting Iran and Lebanon, yet OPEC+ still approved another output increase after the Hormuz closure, showing supply disci…

Sunday, June 7, 2026 Week in Review

Week in Review · research, podcasts and the week’s biggest moves

Saturday, June 6, 2026

US crude exports are stripping inventories to the bone while global stocks sit depleted, setting up the next oil spike just as natural gas futures wobble after their recent run and…