Last price as of Wed, Jul 22, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude up $3.80 (+5%) to its highest level in 5 weeks (WTI $88, Brent $95) primarily on US’s Rubio (2am ET this morning during ASEAN summit in Manila) saying Iran 'not serious' about peace talks. Also overnight: Iranian drone and missile strikes on Kuwait, and the 11th night of US shaping hits on Iran. Cocoa down $120 (-2.1%). Cotton up $1.44 (+1.8%). Dutch TTF down $1.08 (-1.8%). Palladium up $20 (+1.5%) on short covering and reduced Russian supply concerns. JKM up $0.31 (+1.5%).
Kicker: Long Aug JKM vs short Sep TTF spread on Asian demand rebound, Goldman Sachs.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Permian Basin producers faced negative natural gas prices averaging -$2.19 per mmBtu in the first half of the year, hitting a record low of -$7.95 in April due to a supply glut and limited pipeline capacity. New pipelines from Kinder Morgan, Energy Transfer and others have lifted regional prices out of negative territory, though they remain about 40% below Henry Hub. Analysts warn the relief may prove temporary as drilling ramps up on high oil prices from the Iran conflict, potentially overwhelming takeaway capacity again before major new lines arrive late in the decade. Read →
Equinor reported adjusted net income of $3.44 billion for the second quarter, beating the $3.36 billion analyst average, driven by higher production and elevated European natural gas prices from the Iran conflict that boosted its trading unit. Adjusted pretax profit reached $11.48 billion versus $6.54 billion a year earlier. The company maintained its 3% full-year output growth target and $13 billion investment plan while doubling share buybacks amid strong cash flow. Read →
Equinor posted a sharp rise in second-quarter adjusted pretax profit to $11.48 billion from $6.54 billion a year earlier, lifted by surging oil and gas prices amid Middle East supply disruptions. Oil averaged $97.90 per barrel while European gas rose 32% to $15.79 per mmBtu. The downstream trading unit delivered $777 million in profit, exceeding forecasts, and shares are up 54% year-to-date. Read →
Two Indian state-run refiners have suspended loadings of Iraqi crude, including a planned 2-million-barrel cargo on the supertanker Lila Jamnagar, citing escalating security risks in the Strait of Hormuz. Multiple vessels have been struck by projectiles in recent days, making fully laden tankers too vulnerable for the crossing. The moves highlight growing disruption to Middle East oil flows amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. Read →
Brent crude futures climbed $1 to $92.01 per barrel and WTI rose 82 cents to $85.16 as U.S. forces struck Iranian targets for the 11th straight night and Iran-backed Houthis threatened Saudi oil vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Tankers carrying Saudi crude made U-turns in the Red Sea, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium halted Kazakh oil loadings after attacks on tankers. Oil is extending gains from five-week highs amid fears of broader supply disruptions. Read →
Goldman Sachs said Brent could rally above $120/bbl by Q4 if Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist, though not its base case. Escalation in the Middle East has cut Persian Gulf flows below 45% of pre-war levels, pushing prices higher. Read →
Shipping disruptions intensified in key Middle East chokepoints amid the US-Iran conflict. Vessels in the Red Sea made U-turns while visible traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sank. Read →
Brent rose to $92/bbl and WTI traded above $85 as oil extended gains for a fourth day. President Trump downplayed near-term Iran talks while threatening broader strikes, spreading supply risks beyond the Middle East to the Black Sea. Read →
Kazakhstan is stopping crude shipments to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiysk after tanker attacks. Companies refuse to send vessels to the facility, jeopardizing the landlocked country's exports. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · US natural gas futures hold near $2.88 amid ample storage and rising power burn offsetting LNG maintenance.
The August NYMEX contract settled at $2.860 after opening at $2.885 and trading down to an intraday low of $2.831 on robust supply and fading cooling demand. The prior week's EIA storage report showed a 41 Bcf injection, leaving working gas at 3,024 Bcf, 6.4% above the five-year average. Read →
Lower-48 gas demand rose to 115.8 Bcf/d as power burn increased 3.1 Bcf/d to 50.6 Bcf/d with stronger cooling loads. Weekly weather-driven demand averaged 113.6 Bcf/d versus 108.1 Bcf/d the prior week. Read →
Egypt is negotiating with Shell, TotalEnergies, BP and Hartree for 15-18 LNG cargoes per month over at least three years at a premium to TTF. Domestic production has fallen below 4.4 bcf/d and import costs have nearly tripled amid tight global markets from the Iran conflict. The deals would add $8-11 billion annually to Egypt's energy bill and compete for spot and term cargoes that influence both TTF and JKM. Read →
European gas storage stands 10% below year-ago levels, reaching only 50% capacity in early July. Injection rates over the past three months are 15% lower than the same period in 2025 per European gas association data. Slower refill pace tightens summer supply and supports TTF prices ahead of winter. Read →
EU storage opened the summer injection season at just 31 bcm, the lowest since 2018. Reaching even an 80% fill target by November requires 57 bcm of injections amid lost Qatari LNG and Russian flows. The shortfall underpins elevated TTF and increases competition for Asian LNG cargoes. Read →
EQT missed Q2 profit estimates due to lower US Henry Hub prices insulated from global spikes. Record domestic output and storage keep US prices low while international benchmarks rise on Middle East tensions. The contrast highlights the TTF-JKM premium over US gas and limited US LNG export relief for Europe/Asia. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM capacity auction clears at $325/MW-day cap, 6.8 GW short amid data-center demand surge.
Jennifer A. Dlouhy and John Ainger · Bloomberg · Mon, Jul 21, 2026
The Trump administration pushes major reforms or breakup of PJM Interconnection, serving 67 million people, over inability to secure adequate supply at reasonable prices due to surging data-center demand. FERC meets this week on the grid operator's fate after repeated capacity shortfalls. The move targets reliability and interconnection bottlenecks in the largest US power market. Read →
Coal
What's moving · Newcastle thermal coal futures rose 0.38% to $130.90/t on July 21 amid stable Asian demand.
India's power ministry reported 42.8 million tonnes of coal stocks at plants as of July 12, sufficient for 14 days at 85% plant load factor. Peak demand hit 270 GW recently due to heat and weak monsoon. Utilities receive adequate daily supplies, with coordination among ministries to prioritize transport. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · USDA's July WASDE cut 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion on stronger exports and lower beginning stocks.
USDA lowered 2026/27 U.S. corn ending stocks to 1.79 billion bushels from 1.96 billion previously, citing higher feed use in the prior year and increased exports. New-crop wheat ending stocks fell 22 million bushels to 722 million. Soybean stocks were left unchanged at 310 million bushels. The tighter corn balance sheet supports prices amid ongoing export demand. Read →
The official July 2026 WASDE report cut U.S. corn ending stocks 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion bushels for 2026/27 after raising exports and trimming beginning stocks. Wheat production forecast fell, pushing ending stocks down 22 million bushels to 722 million. Soybean ending stocks held steady at 310 million bushels with higher exports offsetting supply gains. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Copper wavers near $14,000 per tonne amid US tariff uncertainty and China supply tightness.
Copper pulled back from its highest level since early June as traders awaited White House action on import tariffs. The prospect of tariffs has already pulled large volumes of metal into the US this year, tightening the global market. US Department of Commerce recommendations on levies remain delayed. Read →
Daina Beth Solomon and Iñigo Alexander · Reuters · Tue, Jul 21, 3:25 PM ET
Grupo Mexico reported Q2 net profit of $2.20 billion, up nearly 79% year-over-year, driven by higher copper prices averaging $6.16 per pound. Revenues rose 35% to $5.71 billion while copper output fell 3.7% to 257,537 tonnes. The miner maintained its full-year 2026 production guidance of 1.034 million tonnes. Read →
LME copper futures rose more than 1.5% to $13,854.50 per metric tonne. China’s Yangshan import premium hit its highest level in over a year amid scrap shortages and smelter maintenance, boosting demand for imported refined copper. LME stocks fell as Beijing inventories stayed near seasonal lows; US tariff expectations added support. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · China steel output data and rising Simandou-linked shipments ease pressure on iron ore prices near $99/t.
Guo Yuandan, Li Xuanmin · Global Times · Tue, Jul 21, 2026
China State Shipbuilding Corporation delivered the 41,800-tonne Wontanara, the world's largest and fastest self-unloading transshipment vessel, to Rio Tinto's SimFer JV for the Simandou project in Guinea. The ship unloads at 12,000 tonnes per hour and will support ramp-up of high-grade ore shipments to China. It marks a logistics advance that could accelerate supply growth and influence seaborne iron ore flows and pricing. Read →
Comex Stat data showed Brazil shipped a record 42.2 million tonnes of iron ore in June, up 51% month-on-month and 17.4% year-on-year, with 32.1 million tonnes to China. The surge adds to seaborne supply and supports Chinese mills amid soft domestic steel demand. Read →
Latest Chinese futures settlement data for iron ore, rebar and related contracts released after Tuesday trading. Moves reflect ongoing pressure from seasonal demand weakness and supply inflows ahead of further Simandou ramp-up. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Silver surges over 4% as gold rebounds above $4,000 on short covering amid geopolitics and firm yields.
Spot gold rose to near $4,057.60/oz (+1.26%) and silver to near $58.92/oz (+4.67%) in early Tuesday trading after defending the $4,000 level following last week’s selloff. Short covering drove the rebound while the dollar index held near 101 and 10-year yields near 4.60%. Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz added defensive support but higher oil kept yields firm, capping upside. Read →
August gold futures opened at $4,013.40/oz on Tuesday and rose to $4,063.40/oz by early morning. Fighting between the U.S. and Iran raises inflation risks while markets price a 16.6% chance of a 25bp Fed hike next week. Gold trades in a tight range near $4,000 as investors weigh geopolitical support against higher-for-longer rates. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China's zero heavy rare earth exports to Japan in June sustain supply pressure on dysprosium and magnets.
Dozens of Japanese companies highlighted rare earth access risks in recent filings, warning shortages now affect the broader economy beyond the magnet sector. Tokyo is accelerating allied supply deals, recycling and deep-sea mining to counter the cutoffs that began after November 2025 Taiwan comments. Mizuho estimates a full halt could hit Japan's economy harder than the 2010 crisis. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz tanker traffic slumps 66% weekly as US-Iran strikes and blockade choke the chokepoint.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence logged 53 transits for the week to July 20, down 66% from 157 the prior week; tanker and gas carrier crossings fell to 30 from 90. Kpler and S&P Global data showed daily crossings dropping to single digits after the renewed blockade and strikes. The waterway, which handles roughly a fifth of global oil consumption, sees mainstream owners avoid it, reversing post-ceasefire normalization and pressuring energy flows. Read →
Kpler data showed transits falling to eight vessels on July 16 from 15 the day before; Lloyd’s List Intelligence confirmed a 66.2% weekly drop. Pre-conflict averages of 138 ships per day contrast with the current near-halt driven by Iranian attacks, US blockade, and mines threat. Houthis separately declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, adding Red Sea risks that could cut global oil supply by up to 7%. Read →
VLCC TD3C TCE (AG to CN) climbed $3k to $382k while TD22 (US to CN) fell $8k to $96k. Suezmax average TCE gained $2k to $152k and Aframax rose $7k to $94k. The mixed moves reflect ongoing chokepoint volatility from Hormuz disruptions. Read →
Finnish registry Puro.earth certified the world's first verified carbon removal credits from a Norwegian biogas-based BECCS project. The milestone expands high-integrity engineered removal supply in the voluntary carbon market. Read →
The European Commission proposed scrapping additional EU quality criteria for CORSIA Phase 1 credits used by EEA airlines. CORSIA Phase 1 spot prices rose to $11.60/tCO2e after the announcement. Read →
Katherine Doherty and Mia Gindis · Bloomberg · Tue, Jul 21, 6:08 PM ET
Kalshi filed with the CFTC to launch perpetual futures on gold, silver and platinum spot prices, its first expansion beyond crypto. The 45-day review process targets continuous 24/7 trading on precious metals. Approval would bring regulated on-chain-style perpetuals to traditional commodities, challenging CME dominance. Read →
Kalshi submitted a CFTC filing for perpetual futures contracts tied to gold, silver and platinum spot prices. The move follows May approval for crypto perps and positions the platform against traditional futures exchanges. CFTC has up to 45 days to decide on the contracts. Read →
Kalshi asked the CFTC on Tuesday for permission to offer perpetual futures on gold, silver and platinum. The contracts would extend the platform’s derivatives offering into physical commodities. The filing marks a regulatory step toward broader tokenized-style commodity trading. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · ADNOC advances $6.2B Umm Shaif Gas Cap FID with TotalEnergies, Eni and CNPC to unlock 600+ MMscfd gas.
State-run ADNOC took final investment decision Tuesday on the $6.2 billion Umm Shaif Gas Cap development with TotalEnergies, Eni and CNPC at its longest-operating offshore field. The move expands ADNOC's natural gas and LNG portfolio amid expectations of rising domestic and international demand from data centers and Asian population growth. Production start is targeted for 2030. Read →
ADNOC approved a $6.2 billion project at the Umm Shaif offshore field to expand natural gas production and LNG exports. The development forms part of ADNOC's strategy targeting 47 million metric tons of LNG capacity per annum by 2035. It aims to secure reliable gas supplies for domestic use and global buyers. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Escalating US-Iran strikes and Houthi Red Sea threats drive oil to five-week highs above $92/bbl amid supply disruption fears.
Brent crude rose 1.3% to $92.22/bbl after two Saudi crude tankers to Asia reversed course following Houthi threats. The moves followed US strikes on Iran and Iranian attacks on US facilities. Markets focused on tech earnings despite the oil spike and geopolitical risks. Read →
Trump announced imported generic drugs will face 0% US tariffs from Aug. 1, 2026 for two years, then 100% for one year and 200% thereafter. The move aims to reshore generic pharmaceutical production to the US. Patented drugs remain under prior 100% tariff rules. Read →
Iraq's oil minister said agreements signed with US companies during the prime minister's US visit total about $200 billion. The deals will boost oil production capacity and expand associated gas projects. They were reached amid broader US-Iraq energy cooperation talks. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Retail and trader chatter centers on Brent spiking past $91/barrel with US strikes and Iranian retaliation disrupting tanker flows. US gas prices reclaiming $4/gallon adds inflation pressure. Geopolitical premium dominates energy discussions. Read →
Commodity editor updates flag Brent holding 5-6 week highs despite mediation reports between US-Iran. Copper gains on China physical tightness; gold/silver near lows but rice and canola futures spike on El Nino concerns. Traders balance geopolitics with supply signals. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Samantha Dart discusses oil prices rising due to US-Iran conflict threatening Middle East supplies. She notes the direction is toward tightening and prices can continue increasing while disruptions last. Goldman sees potential for Brent above $120 if Hormuz issues persist, though not base case. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.