Oil: Brent/WTI spiked toward $100+ on 13 nights of US strikes on Iran plus Houthi tanker attacks in Red Sea/Bab-el-Mandeb, then pulled back Friday on de-escalation signals.

The angle · Geopolitical risk premium now front-loaded into front-month futures; contango flattening as physical flows reroute around Hormuz while paper longs sit heavy on headlines.

Precious metals: Silver gave back 5% and gold 2% after prior surge as oil-driven inflation fears eased and rate-hike odds repriced higher mid-week.

The angle · Safe-haven bid decoupled from energy; long positioning in silver/gold now faces unwind risk if Middle East headlines fade faster than macro data supports.

China energy/chemicals: Crude spot +5.4%, naphtha/olefins and downstream polyolefins/styrene chain snapped back sharply while coal eased and protein prices firmed again.

The angle · Chinese demand pulse visible in petrochemical margins rebuilding overnight; basis strength in energy chain versus weaker industrial metals creates relative-value dislocation for arbitrage flows.

Grains/softs: Soybeans pushed to 25-month highs and wheat near 2-year highs on energy spillover and fund buying; eggs/pork also climbed while base grains held flat.

The angle · Ag longs riding energy beta with limited weather catalyst; positioning stretched in soy/wheat versus flat grains creates asymmetry if energy premium rolls off.

WTI Crude · live weekend pricing

$89.28 ▼ -0.03 -0.03%

vs Friday, July 24, 2026 NYMEX WTI Crude close $89.31

Nat Gas · live weekend pricing

$2.89 ▲ +0.01 +0.52%

vs Friday, July 24, 2026 NYMEX Nat Gas close $2.87

IEA · Fri, Jul 10, 2026

The report details a sharp rebound in global oil supply to 98.8 mb/d in June following the interim ceasefire and resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, though still 9.4 mb/d below pre-war levels. World oil demand is forecast to decline by 1 mb/d in 2026 overall, the first annual drop since 2020, before rebounding in 2027, with product markets remaining tight amid slower refinery recovery. Prices plunged then partially recovered on renewed tensions, with the outlook hinging on sustained de-escalation and normalization of trade flows. Read →

Morgan Stanley · Wed, Jul 1, 2026

Despite strong 2026 gains with the Bloomberg Commodity Index up over 25% through May, the cycle remains supported by persistent supply constraints, resilient demand, and long investment lead times across energy, metals, and agriculture. Futures curves in backwardation signal ongoing scarcity in several markets, including refined products, while higher prices have not yet spurred sufficient new supply. Leadership is expected to rotate across sectors, warranting diversified exposure rather than timing individual commodities. Read →

J.P. Morgan · Thu, Jul 16, 2026

J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts Brent crude averaging $86/bbl in Q3 2026, easing to $80/bbl in Q4 and $78/bbl by year-end amid improving supply conditions post-ceasefire. The analysis navigates the challenging geopolitical and supply-disruption environment of 2026, highlighting risks from any renewed tensions in key transit routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Longer-term, normalization of flows supports a gradual price decline from recent peaks. Read →

J.P. Morgan · Thu, Jul 16, 2026

J.P. Morgan maintains a bullish structural view on gold despite recent price weakness and trimmed near-term forecasts, projecting averages around $5,243/oz for 2026 with Q4 targets near $6,000/oz and further upside to $6,300/oz in 2027. Central bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty provide key supports, even as investor demand has softened and real yields exert pressure. The long-term case for higher prices remains intact amid ongoing macro and safe-haven dynamics. Read →

S&P Global · Fri, Jul 17, 2026

An uneasy ceasefire in the Middle East has enabled commodity prices to partially retreat from Q2 2026 peaks, with Brent crude now expected to average $87/bbl for the year, down from prior forecasts. US economic growth and supply responses are factoring into revised outlooks across energy and other sectors. The report tracks ongoing price adjustments amid evolving geopolitical and demand conditions. Read →

Bloomberg Odd Lots · Thu, Jun 26, 2026

Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, returns to discuss why oil prices did not surge to $200 per barrel despite the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Key factors include supply rerouting, policy interventions, reduced Chinese imports, and demand destruction that capped price upside. Listen →

Argus Media Global LPG Conversations · Tue, Jul 14, 2026

Peter Wilton and guests Waldemar Jaszczyk and Jack Greenwood analyze how global LPG markets responded to Middle East conflict, Hormuz disruptions, and the US-Iran MOU. They cover price collapses in Asia and Europe due to demand destruction, US export surges, and risks for the heating season if supply recovery is slow. Listen →

Columbia Energy Exchange · Tue, Jul 21, 2026

Discussion on critical minerals supply chains amid US policy shifts and global tensions. Experts address challenges in securing materials for the energy transition, including geopolitical risks and strategies to mitigate bottlenecks. Listen →

The Energy Gang · Mon, Jul 7, 2026

WoodMac's Energy Gang explores barriers to new energy infrastructure development, including regulatory, logistical, and financing hurdles. The episode debates solutions to accelerate projects amid rising global energy demand. Listen →

Smarter Markets · Sat, Jul 11, 2026

Samantha Dart joins to discuss global commodities outlook, inflation dynamics, and how different commodities perform as inflation hedges. Key takeaways on market structure and investment implications in volatile conditions. Listen →

CNBC · Thu, Jul 24, 2026

Scott Modell of Rapidan Energy discusses significant upside risks to crude oil prices due to ongoing Iran escalation and supply threats. The segment highlights geopolitical drivers and potential market impacts in a high-tension environment. Listen →

Grok · xAI

▼ Down Oversupply and inventory builds pressure prices lower.

Past 3 wks (dot on very right is this week) · ●●●

Gemini · Google

▲ Up Geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ supply discipline, and robust global demand are set to push crude prices higher despite economic headwinds.

Past 3 wks (dot on very right is this week) · ●●●

Claude · Anthropic

▼ Down Slowing global demand, OPEC+ supply creep, and recession fears outweigh geopolitical risk premiums right now.

Past 3 wks (dot on very right is this week) · ●●●

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