Last price as of Thu, Jul 30, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Oil stable this morning following a volatile start to the week. The big movers today are wheat and the iron ore complex. Wheat up $22 (+3.4%) on Black Sea grain export risks from new Russian terminal limits following missile strikes. Iron Ore down $3.0 (-3.1%) to fresh 13 month low on rising Chinese port inventories, ongoing weak Chinese construction demand. Rebar down $10 (-2.6%) on Chinese steel futures weakness. Copper up $0.14 (+2.2%). Coffee up $6.6 (+2.2%). Palladium up $25 (+2.0%) on resilient hybrid vehicle demand offsetting surplus expectations.
Kicker: Long copper vs short aluminium Dec-27 spread on relative supply tightness, Goldman Sachs.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Brent futures fell 1.06% to $89.78 a barrel and WTI dropped 0.76% to $83.82 amid escalating Gulf attacks. Markets shifted focus to actual supply movements through chokepoints despite prior 7-8% gains from strikes. Tankers continue plying conflict zones with reduced but ongoing flows estimated at 13 million bpd from the Gulf. Read →
Shell reported adjusted earnings of $9.84 billion for Q2, more than doubling from $4.26 billion a year earlier and beating $8.92 billion estimates. Higher oil and gas prices, LNG, trading, and refining margins drove gains amid Iran conflict volatility, offsetting lower volumes. The company maintained its $3 billion quarterly buyback. Read →
Shell's second-quarter adjusted net income rose to $9.8 billion, more than doubling year-over-year and topping $8.7 billion estimates. Middle East conflict fueled a boom in trading and refining margins for the energy major. The firm held its $3 billion buyback pace and reduced net debt. Read →
US crude stockpiles fell sharply last week as refineries ramped up activity amid surging fuel prices from renewed Iran hostilities. Inventories reached precariously low levels due to war-driven supply disruptions. The drop adds pressure to already tight energy markets. Read →
Bloomberg News · Bloomberg · Thu, Jul 30, 12:25 AM ET
Copper, aluminum and zinc prices rose after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. The pause eased worries over industrial demand that had weighed on metals ahead of the meeting. Three policymakers dissented in favor of a hike amid inflation risks from the Iran conflict. Read →
Ampol reported its Lytton refinery margin rose 255% to $30.93 per barrel in Q2 from $8.71 a year earlier. Higher crude prices and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions tightened Asian refined product supplies. Shares hit a more than two-year high on the results. Read →
An Aframax tanker loaded Canadian crude via the Trans Mountain pipeline in Vancouver and sailed to Japan's Kiire terminal. Japanese buyers seek supply diversification as Iran-related conflict restricts Middle East crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. It is the first such shipment since early 2025. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · Henry Hub futures rebound on heat forecasts and pre-storage positioning as Waha prices surge on Permian pipelines.
September natural gas futures extended recovery Wednesday after Tuesday's selloff. Persistent heat forecasts and positioning ahead of Thursday's EIA storage report supported buying. Winter strip led gains amid the rebound. Read →
A drone hit US-owned floating storage tanker Energos Winter at Damietta port Wednesday. Fire spread to Gaslog Salem with no injuries reported. Incident raises risks of wider Middle East conflict impacting energy shipping. Read →
JPMorgan, S&P Global Energy and Wood Mackenzie cut China's LNG demand growth projections for early 2030s by 14-22 million tons. Heightened energy security concerns drive push for self-sufficiency. Imports on track for second straight annual decline to 61-64 million tons. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · QatarEnergy buys 33 US LNG cargoes for Asia amid Hormuz blockade, first tanker exits strait.
QatarEnergy purchased 33 spot US LNG cargoes this year for delivery to South Korea, Taiwan, Bangladesh, India and Japan, with 28 already delivered. The purchases, worth around $1 billion, aim to offset force majeure on its own shipments after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to shipping. This supports Asian buyers and protects QatarEnergy's reputation as a reliable supplier while 20% of global LNG flows remain bottled up. Read →
The Al Areesh tanker, loaded at Ras Laffan around July 4-6, exited the Strait of Hormuz overnight on July 29, the first such QatarEnergy vessel since July 11 per Kpler and LSEG data. Hormuz transits ticked up slightly on Wednesday but remain severely curtailed by the Iran war blockade. Ship traffic through Bab el-Mandeb also slowed. Read →
Dutch TTF benchmark EU gas price fell to 60.32 EUR/MWh on July 30, down 0.40% from the prior day. Prices have risen over 40% in the past month amid ongoing supply concerns. The TTF remains the key European hub benchmark. Read →
LNG JKM climbed to 21.43 USD/MMBTU on July 29, up 0.49% from the previous session. The benchmark has gained 33.52% over the past month. It tracks spot LNG delivered to Japan and South Korea. Read →
Coal
What's moving · China heatwave lifts thermal coal prices as Qinhuangdao spot hits 822 yuan/t.
China thermal coal spot prices in Qinhuangdao rebounded to 822 yuan per ton on Monday after a 7% drop earlier in July. Hotter weather across central and eastern China is increasing air-conditioner use and electricity demand. Prices could rise further amid the ongoing heatwave, per the China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association. Read →
Shreyashi Sanyal · Argus Media · Wed, Jul 29, 2026
Kazakhstan held talks with Chinese investors this week on coal-to-chemical projects for metallurgical coke and synthetic fuels. The discussions build on Kazakhstan's plan for six such projects from 2026-31 and add to foreign investments from Russia, Germany and the US. Kazakhstan expects a 1.3 TWh electricity surplus by end-2027 after adding coal-fired capacity. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Black Sea grain export disruptions lift wheat as US corn and soybean conditions decline.
Three major Russian Black Sea grain terminals restricted truck deliveries amid heightened shipping risks from attacks on vessels and ports. Chicago wheat rose 0.3% while soybeans fell 1% and corn dropped 0.5% as favorable US Midwest weather weighed on the latter two. Disruptions reinforce supply concerns for global wheat trade. Read →
USDA weekly crop progress report showed corn good-to-excellent ratings at 63%, down from 67% prior week, and soybeans also at 63%, down from 66%. Both fell below analyst expectations amid ongoing heat across the Midwest. The data supports price support for corn while pressuring soybeans on improved weather outlook. Read →
China imported 12.1 million metric tons of Brazilian soybeans in June, up 14% year-over-year, while US soybean imports plunged 21% to 1.27 million tons. Overnight soybean futures fell over 13 cents to $12.06-3/4 per bushel on the shift. Corn and wheat futures also declined amid the demand redirection. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Copper market tightens as LME and ShFE stocks fall sharply amid US tariff threat and strong Chinese import demand.
US refined copper imports jumped 13% YoY in the first five months of 2026, with CME warehouses now holding 58% of global visible stocks as the tariff threat sustains a premium. ShFE stocks plunged to a 2.5-year low of 69,610 tons, pushing the Yangshan premium to a four-year high of $115/ton. LME stocks fell to 262,000 tons with open inventory near six-month lows, creating a backwardation and risking a lasting regional market fracture. Read →
Lithium carbonate spot traded flat at 146,000 CNY/T on July 30. Prices have fallen 8.75% over the past month but remain more than double year-ago levels. Recent permit clearances for major mines like CATL's Jianxiawo signal potential supply increases offsetting demand growth from energy storage. Read →
LME aluminium rose 1.03% and nickel 0.98% on July 29 while copper declined 0.76%, the largest drop in the complex. Traders cited easing supply tightness signals in China and profit-taking in aluminium after recent gains. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore futures slide to 13-month low near CNY 720/t on weak China steel demand and rising port stocks.
Rio Tinto's half-year results showed copper and aluminium generating 56% of underlying earnings, with copper alone at 39% and its EBITDA up 84% versus a 1% decline for iron ore. BHP's prior half also saw copper surpass iron ore in driving profits. This shift matters as China's steel output eases while new supply arrives, pressuring iron ore margins for the majors. Read →
Iron ore futures fell toward CNY 720 per tonne at a 13-month low. Weak steel demand, property contraction and rising port inventories pressure the physical market as Chinese steel mills deepen losses. This highlights immediate headwinds for the iron ore complex. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold rises 2% after Fed holds rates steady, dollar and yields fall.
Physically backed gold ETFs saw $8.9bn outflows in June across all regions, with North America losing the most, cutting AUM 13% to $526bn. H1 net inflows still reached $8bn overall, led by Asia's record strength while Europe added inflows and North America posted losses. Holdings fell 74t in the month but rose 18t year-to-date. Read →
Official gold reserves rose a net 41t in May, driven by Poland's 18t purchase and China's 10t addition, with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Singapore also buying. The activity extends the multi-year trend of emerging-market central banks accumulating gold. 89% of surveyed central bankers expect global reserves to increase over the next 12 months. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · US government funding advances non-Chinese rare earth supply chains via Madagascar project and Energy Fuels Utah plant construction.
The US State Department confirmed support for Harena Rare Earths' $150 million Ampasindava ionic clay project in Madagascar, with the US International Development Finance Corporation pledging up to $4.84 million for pilot testing, lab work and environmental studies. The deposit holds neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium for permanent magnets used in EVs, electronics and defense. Harena targets mid-2028 startup and is evaluating US and European refining partners including MP Materials. Read →
Energy Fuels began construction of a $104 million expansion at its White Mesa Mill in Utah to produce commercial-scale heavy rare earth oxides including up to 120 tpa dysprosium and 20 tpa terbium. The expansion, supported by US government loans and grants, adds to existing NdPr capacity and targets completion of Tb/Dy circuits by end-2027. Output will feed downstream metal, alloy and magnet production via planned acquisitions of Australian Strategic Materials and Vacuumschmelze. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · BDI drops 1.2% to 2,632 on July 29 amid lower capesize and supramax rates, while Hormuz/Red Sea chokepoints tighten tanker and LNG supply.
The Baltic Dry Index fell 32 points or 1.2% to 2,632 on July 29, its lowest in four weeks. Capesize rates dropped 1.8% to 4,067 and supramax declined 1.2% to 1,628, while panamax edged up 0.4%. Lower earnings for iron ore, coal and grain carriers signal softening dry-bulk demand. Read →
Thirty-nine commodity ships passed the Bab el-Mandeb on July 28, the highest weekly total since July 19, including VLCC Sophia and Aframax Ocean Laureate carrying crude. Only eight ships transited the Strait of Hormuz that day. Houthis claimed a missile strike on a Saudi tanker, keeping chokepoint risks elevated for tankers and dry bulk. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUA prices hover near 6-month highs around €82 as EU ETS reform details linger and energy markets firm.
The Trump administration is weighing an extension of the Sept. 1, 2026, deadline for refiners to comply with 2025 Renewable Fuel Standard obligations. High RIN prices have raised compliance costs, and an extension would give refiners more time while the EPA reviews small refinery exemption petitions. The move could ease short-term pressure on the multibillion-dollar RIN market amid ambitious 2026 biofuel mandates. Read →
The European Commission proposed slowing the ETS emissions cap reduction rate to 3.7% from 2031 and 1.7% from 2036, while extending free allowances until 2037 for qualifying decarbonization investments. The overhaul includes expanded coverage for waste incineration, smaller ships, and international flights, plus a requirement for governments to spend half of ETS revenues on clean tech. The changes aim to align with the 2040 climate goal while supporting industry competitiveness. Read →
EU Carbon Permits rose to 82.02 EUR on July 29, 2026, up 0.35% from the prior day and marking levels near 6-month highs. Prices have gained 2.32% over the past month amid higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions, with the European Commission overhaul aimed at balancing ambition and competitiveness. The benchmark has risen 12.57% year-over-year. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · Binance launches gold and silver options on ADGM-regulated exchange after billions in perp futures volume.
Binance launched European-style, USDT-settled options on gold and silver via its ADGM-regulated Nest Exchange. The move follows peak daily volumes of $7.77 billion in gold perps and $7.27 billion in silver perps since January. Retail traders can buy calls and puts but cannot write options, capping losses at the premium paid. Read →
The World Gold Council revised first-quarter central bank gold buying down to 57 tons, 187 tons below prior estimates. This marks the weakest Q1 in over a decade and points to full-year purchases falling below 2025 levels. The revision comes as tokenized gold products expand amid record prices. Read →
Ten Holstein cows valued at R$120,000 backed a R$100,000 loan registered on Brazil's B3 exchange using a traditional CPR-F credit note. Smart collars provided encrypted digital IDs for real-time health and location data, enabling collateral verification without blockchain. The pilot highlights data-driven livestock financing but clarifies no on-chain token or wallet is involved. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Rio Tinto posts 47% profit jump on metal prices and cost cuts, lifting interim dividend 43%.
Rio Tinto reported first-half 2026 profit after tax of $6.7 billion, up 47% year-on-year, with underlying earnings of $6.9 billion. Underlying EBITDA rose 28% to $14.8 billion and free cash flow surged 75% to $3.8 billion, supported by 3% higher copper-equivalent production and productivity gains. The company declared a $3.4 billion interim dividend, up 43%, while advancing copper, lithium and iron ore growth projects. Read →
Antero Resources reported second-quarter 2026 results and announced completion of $315 million in strategic acquisitions adding 125 MMcfe/d net production and 15 net drilling locations in its Marcellus core. The deals expand the company's West Virginia footprint following the prior HG Energy acquisition. Management highlighted integration progress and maintained full-year production guidance. Read →
National Fuel Gas Company released its fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings after market close on July 29. The natural gas utility and producer reported results covering its exploration, midstream and utility segments. A conference call to discuss the figures is scheduled for July 30. Read →
Comstock Resources reported Q2 2026 natural gas and oil sales of $331.6 million including hedging gains, with production of 113.1 Bcfe up 16% sequentially. Net income available to the company was $8.8 million or $0.03 per share. The company highlighted prior midstream equity placement proceeds used to retire debt and preferred equity. Read →
Criterium Energy released a preliminary Q2 2026 operational update noting realized oil prices averaging US$106 per barrel with a premium to benchmarks. The small producer highlighted ongoing gas development progress in its Indonesian assets. The release focuses on production metrics and near-term project advancement. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · CFTC extends comment period on 24/7 energy futures and perpetual contracts to August 26.
The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issued an advisory reminding designated contract markets of proper procedures for self-certifying event contract series under Regulation § 40.2. It warns against broad, template-style submissions that combine multiple variations and limit review of settlement, data sources, and compliance. The guidance clarifies when contracts may be certified as a class. Read →
CFTC staff issued a time-limited no-action letter to Kraken Derivatives Exchange Inc. (formerly Small Exchange) extending prior relief on procedures related to contract dormancy. The position responds to a request to extend an earlier no-action letter. It provides temporary regulatory flexibility for the designated contract market. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders in r/oil are buzzing over sharp oil price gains after fresh US attacks on Iranian targets and EIA data showing a massive -7.167M barrel US commercial crude draw, the largest in weeks. Inventories hit lows not seen since 2018, with discussions on supply disruptions, Hormuz risks, and how geopolitics plus tight stocks could sustain higher prices. Read →
r/oil users highlight a drone strike on a US floating LNG storage facility in Egypt as escalation in regional conflicts. Discussions focus on how such attacks signal broader vulnerabilities in energy infrastructure, potential LNG supply impacts, and links to ongoing Iran-related tensions driving energy market volatility. Read →
Notable uranium voices on X discuss market tanking flushing weak hands from uranium mining stocks, with strong conviction in a coming recovery rally. Key drivers include soaring nuclear fuel demand, US Senate progress on banning Russian uranium imports, and analyst upgrades like Cantor Fitzgerald's buy rating on Energy Fuels. Read →
In r/commodities, traders debate persistent weakness in Henry Hub natural gas prices with limited near-term catalysts for relief. Conversations cover storage levels, weather impacts, and broader energy market dynamics affecting gas trading strategies. Read →
X gold traders note gold stuck in a tight range between $3,959 demand and $4,200 supply zones with repeated failed breakouts. Discussions link ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Middle East tensions to safe-haven demand while technical setups favor shorts on rallies unless a decisive breakout occurs. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Former Goldman Sachs Global Head of Commodities Research and Carlyle advisor discusses physical supply constraints from Hormuz disruptions, Russian refining losses, and Red/Black Sea issues. He highlights record crack spreads signaling refined product shortages over crude, deglobalization risks, and why markets undervalue scarcity signals amid geopolitical shocks. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.