Last price as of Mon, Aug 3, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude down $4.91 (-5.3%) on Trump announcing peace talks with Iran will resume after canceling planned strike. Iron Ore down $2.2 (-2.3%). HRC down $7 (-1.8%). Sugar up $0.24 (+1.6%). Cocoa up $82 (+1.5%) on Ghana cocoa regulator cutting 2026/27 production forecast to 450,000-550,000 MT due to swollen shoot disease, aging farms and El Nino risks. Coffee down $4.6 (-1.5%).
Kicker: Short Sep'26 cocoa vs long Dec'26 on narrowing forward curve as near-term West Africa supply fears ease into better mid-crop prospects, Macquarie.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Oil prices tumbled more than $4 a barrel Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump held off on a fresh attack on Iran, seeking a quick deal to halt Tehran's nuclear ambitions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures slid $4.08, or 4.64%, to $83.85 while WTI fell similarly. Read →
Bumper oil refining profits triggered by the Iran war are turbocharging Big Oil's earnings, with BP's refining-indicator margin reaching $30 per barrel in Q2 and higher in Q3. The sector faces record highs in margins for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel due to Middle East disruptions and reduced global refining output, though long-term structural changes in oil consumption mean refining’s star will likely fade quickly. Read →
Gold rose on Monday as oil prices fell after U.S. President Donald Trump held off on fresh attacks on Iran in hopes of a swift deal, slightly easing concerns over inflation and higher interest rates. Spot gold was up 0.7% at $4,068.54 per ounce. Read →
Seven members of OPEC+ said Sunday they will raise output by about 188,000 barrels a day in September, a sixth straight monthly increase that completes the unwinding of voluntary output cuts. The move comes as oil prices fell amid hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal. Read →
A surge in fruit exports shows how high-value agriculture can spur industrialisation across Africa, with blueberry farms in Zimbabwe seeing intense activity and strong demand from east Asia and Europe. The boom contrasts with traditional mining commodities like gold and copper. Read →
Olesya Astakhova, Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler · Reuters · Sun, Aug 2, 2026
Core OPEC+ members approved a 188,000 bpd production quota increase from September. The move completes the phased unwinding of 1.65 million bpd voluntary cuts from 2023. Further hikes for Q4 remain undecided as the group monitors post-conflict supply normalization. Read →
WTI September futures dropped 5.05% to $80.39 per barrel and Brent October fell about 4% to $84.41. Trump announced on Truth Social he canceled strikes after Middle East allies requested a pause for a deal including immediate Hormuz Strait reopening. Tehran responded cautiously to the proposal. Read →
U.S. crude fell 5% to $80.79 per barrel and Brent fell 5% to $83.87 per barrel Sunday night. Trump cited requests from Iran and regional countries to hold off on attacks pending a rapid deal. The agreement outline includes full Hormuz reopening and ending Iran's nuclear threat. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · EU gas fell 4-5% to 56 EUR/MWh today on milder weather and LNG supply signals amid Hormuz tensions.
GasLog Shanghai LNG carrier, loaded at Qatar's Ras Laffan terminal July 27-28, reported stable after an incident exiting the Strait of Hormuz on July 31; crew safe, vessel now off Oman. Nearly one-fifth of global LNG transits the strait, already thinned by Iran-related closures since February. The event underscores ongoing shipping risks for Qatari and UAE exports that support European and Asian spot markets. Read →
Global benchmarks including JKM and TTF declined in the latest weekly update. The move aligns with broader energy price softening. Asian and European LNG-linked prices continue to respond to supply flows and seasonal demand patterns. Read →
July 2026 exports from non-Persian Gulf sources posted the narrowest year-on-year gain of the year. Persistent demand outside Europe continues to outpace available supply. This tightens competition for spot cargoes between Asia and Europe, supporting the TTF-JKM arb dynamics. Read →
Coal
What's moving · China heatwave lifts thermal coal futures to one-month highs near $134/t.
Thermal coal futures rose to around $134 per ton, a one-month high, driven by stronger Chinese demand from hotter weather increasing air conditioning and power use in central and eastern regions. Elevated Chinese inventories and safety inspections after a Shanxi accident plus Indonesian supply disruptions from dry weather also supported prices. This tightens the seaborne thermal market amid China’s dominant role in global demand. Read →
Adani produced 3.1 million tonnes of thermal coal at its Australian Carmichael mine in April-June, up 7% year-on-year, with sales rising 17% to 2.7 million tonnes. Full-year FY2025-26 output fell 11% to 11.4 million tonnes from the prior record. The increase adds Australian supply to a market facing softer Indian imports, pressuring seaborne thermal prices despite stronger Newcastle benchmarks. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Strong new-crop corn and soybean export sales hit 1.06M and 1.33M tons respectively, but prices face pressure from overseas conflicts and U.S. weather.
Weekly USDA export data showed new-crop corn sales at 1.06 million tons and soybeans at 1.33 million tons, both beating expectations. A 132,000-ton flash sale to China added to the soybean tally. Overseas conflicts and domestic weather concerns weighed on prices despite the demand figures. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · LME and SHFE base metals prices edge higher overnight on firmer Chinese import signals and mine supply shifts.
The US Trade Representative exempted aluminum scrap from new Section 301 forced-labor tariffs effective Saturday, removing a temporary 10% duty after industry input highlighted supply-chain disruption risks. Scrap serves as key feedstock for US aluminum production, and the carve-out prevents output cuts at smelters and downstream fabricators. The move supports domestic recycling capacity amid ongoing onshoring trends. Read →
Antamina processed 67% copper-only ore in Q2 2026 versus 23% a year earlier, lifting 100%-basis copper production to 108,500 tonnes while zinc output dropped 62% to 54,000 tonnes, Teck Resources reported. The shift followed the mine plan and higher copper grades; a temporary pipeline outage further cut zinc concentrate sales. Teck kept full-year copper guidance unchanged amid tight concentrate markets and record-low treatment charges. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · Iron ore futures slump to one-year lows on weak China steel demand and trader concerns, with DCE and SGX contracts falling nearly 3%.
Iron ore futures retreated as much as 2.3% to $93.65 a ton in Singapore, the lowest intraday level since early July 2025. The Dalian most-traded contract declined nearly 3%. The drop compounds softness from a challenging China demand outlook and concerns over major physical trader Radiant World. Read →
Futures fell as much as 1.9% to $94.10 a ton in Singapore and nearly 3% in Dalian. Chinese mill margins weakened further with hot-metal output down for a fourth week; construction activity hit its lowest since the pandemic start. Vitol and Cargill halted business with trader Radiant World over fake-invoice concerns. Read →
The most-traded September DCE iron ore contract fell 2.16% to 703 yuan. Weak steel-mill demand and rising port inventories continue to pressure prices. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold rises 0.4% to $4,056/oz as oil slumps after Trump pauses Iran strikes, easing rate-hike fears.
Ashitha Shivaprasad · Reuters · Mon, Aug 3, 12:41 AM ET
Spot gold climbed 0.4% to $4,055.76 per ounce after oil prices fell more than 5% following U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to hold off on new attacks on Iran in favor of talks. Silver gained 0.9% to $58.13, platinum rose 0.5% to $1,649.35, and palladium added 1.7% to $1,294.92. The moves reflect reduced near-term inflation pressure from energy prices and a softer dollar after yen intervention. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Trump signs DPA order restricting exports of recoverable critical minerals from scrap batteries and magnets.
The July 30 Presidential Determination delegates authority to the Secretary of Commerce to impose export restrictions on recoverable critical minerals and materials essential to national defense. These include reclaimed elements from batteries and magnets used in military equipment and advanced systems. The policy strengthens the domestic industrial base by preventing overseas shipment of strategic materials amid ongoing supply-chain vulnerabilities. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Baltic Dry Index holds near 2,732 as capesize rates firm on iron ore and coal demand.
The Baltic Dry Index rose 2.2% to 2,732 on Friday, its highest level since July 27. Capesize rates advanced 3.1% to 4,296, their highest in two weeks, on firmer iron ore and coal cargoes. Panamax gained 2.3% while supramax eased, lifting the July average 9.2%. Read →
Saudi Arabia eyes a Red Sea pipeline expansion up to 2mbd while the UAE advances a second Fujairah line to 3.6mbd. Iraq pursues new westbound lines including to Jordan and Syria. Gibson Shipbrokers note these projects hedge tanker demand if Hormuz stays restricted. Read →
Asia to US West Coast container rates fell to $5,700-$6,250/FEU while East Coast rates held steady to higher. Xeneta and Drewry cite softening demand and blank sailings after earlier front-loading; rates remain over three times pre-conflict levels. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU ETS reform proposals and RIN price surge from higher blending targets drive the complex.
The European Commission reinforced stability measures in the EU ETS, including a comprehensive review of the system scheduled for July 2026. This includes potential adjustments to the Market Stability Reserve to maintain predictability. The updates support long-term compliance demand for EUAs amid evolving supply dynamics. Read →
Elevated U.S. biofuel blending targets for 2026 and 2027 pushed RIN prices toward record levels. The EPA's final Renewable Fuel Standard volumes increased renewable volume obligations, boosting demand for D3 and other RIN categories. This tightens the renewable fuel credit market and raises costs for obligated parties blending into gasoline and diesel. Read →
The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market approved a Qatar-based standard body for Core Carbon Principles eligibility. It also cleared one new methodology and flagged two others for potential approval with adjustments. The decisions expand the supply of high-integrity voluntary carbon credits available for compliance and offsetting. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · ADNOC shifts Abu Dhabi crude OSPs to prompt-month Platts Dubai benchmark from Nov 1, reshaping Middle East oil pricing.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co will price Murban, Das, Umm Lulu and Upper Zakum grades using prompt-month Platts Dubai assessments plus announced differentials starting November 1. The shift replaces the prior Murban futures methodology that set prices two months ahead. It aligns OSPs more closely with physical loading month amid rising Middle East spot trading. Read →
Vitol and Cargill stopped trading with Radiant World, a major iron ore trader, after discovering invalid invoices and documents provided to banks. Glencore ceased new business with the firm following similar concerns. At least two creditors are reviewing exposure, including a €200 million facility at Intesa Sanpaolo. Read →
MetaMask enabled eligible non-US mobile users to buy, hold and trade over 200 Ondo-tokenized US equities, ETFs and commodities such as gold and silver via Ondo Global Markets. The assets trade on Ethereum with USDC, 24/5, without traditional brokerage accounts. The integration expands on-chain access to real-world equity and commodity exposure. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Iran deal hopes and OPEC+ quota hike drive oil lower, easing supply concerns for producers.
Brent crude for October slid as much as 7.3% to $81.55 per barrel after Trump called off strikes on Iran for talks starting Monday. A small OPEC+ quota increase for September also weighed on prices. The moves follow a more than 20% oil price jump last month amid U.S.-Iran tensions. Read →
Pemex sealed the Krem-1 natural gas well in Las Choapas, Veracruz, ending a nearly five-month uncontrolled fire and flow. The company will now focus on environmental remediation, community compensation, and health services in affected areas. The incident had raised pollution and health concerns for local communities and farmland. Read →
Pemex completed closure of the Krem-1 exploratory natural gas well in Veracruz nearly five months after a March accident ignited a persistent fire. Operations now shift to site cleanup and community support programs. The prolonged incident had drawn environmental scrutiny and local health complaints. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · US Senate advances Russia sanctions bill with 100% tariff authority on top Russian oil/gas buyers including China and India.
The US Senate advanced a bipartisan bill in an 86-12 procedural vote that imposes sanctions on Russian officials, oligarchs, financial institutions and shadow fleet vessels while authorizing President Trump to levy tariffs of up to 100% on goods from the world's five largest buyers of Russian oil or natural gas, including China and India. Exemptions apply for countries sourcing under 15% of gas from Russia and reducing dependence. The bill still requires House passage and presidential signature, targeting Russia's energy revenues to curb funding for its Ukraine war. Read →
Hungary's 2 GW Paks nuclear plant, supplying nearly half the country's electricity, is shutting for the first time in 44 years due to record-low Danube River levels cutting cooling water amid drought and heatwave. Prime Minister Peter Magyar said the plant will generate no power starting Monday, warned of critical five days ahead with 40°C temperatures, and urged voluntary electricity cuts by companies and households during 5-10 p.m. peaks, with possible mandatory restrictions from Monday. The government is boosting imports while facing $315-630 million extra costs; neighboring Romania declared energy sector alert. Read →
Hungary completed the first full shutdown of its sole nuclear plant at Paks after Danube water levels hit records low, dropping output to over 10% capacity before full offline; the 2 GW facility provides 40% of national electricity. Government ramps up imports, asks large firms like MOL, Samsung SDI and Audi to cut usage voluntarily with mandatory curbs possible, and halts some rail freight and decorative lighting at peaks. Drought and heat strain power, water and agriculture, testing new PM Peter Magyar's leadership and budget as forint weakens. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders discussed setbacks to US efforts on Venezuelan oil amid tariffs, Iran tensions, and other issues. Zerohedge post drew replies on market impacts and policy hurdles. Relevant for crude supply dynamics and potential relief or constraints on global oil flows. Read →
Analyst highlighted uranium's structural bull case with record long-term prices before major utility contracting ramps up. Supply risks from weather, grades, and new mine delays persist while demand grows from reactors and security needs. Matters for nuclear fuel markets as competition for supply intensifies. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research at J.P. Morgan, discusses recent commodity headlines including Brent crude price drops from highs, deteriorated fundamentals in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb, and debates over transit fees' legality and historical precedents. Watch/Listen →
Paul Sankey explains tightness in the crude oil refining system, 'massive' margins between crude and refined products like gasoline/jet fuel, and expects the US strategic petroleum reserve to run out around September amid ongoing market dynamics. Watch/Listen →
Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley, joins to discuss how much runway the world's energy market has left, focusing on the billion-barrel inventory puzzle, oil market volatility, and related fundamentals with Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.