Last price as of Fri, Aug 7, 5:34 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude Oil recovers to $78 (WTI) and $84 (Brent). Technical traders analyze WTI completing a morning star reversal and potential contracting triangle setups driven by Hormuz developments. Continuing geopolitical focus (Houthi Red Sea escalation, Iran bill banning US tankers in Hormuz) overrides softer demand signals in the near term. Silver up $3.04 (+4.9%) on broad precious metals rally amid optimism over potential US-Iran deal easing Strait of Hormuz tensions. Platinum up $48 (+2.7%) on gains across the precious metals complex amid rising optimism over a potential US-Iran deal. Palladium up $27 (+2.0%) on South African supply risks and logistics issues in the Bushveld Igneous Complex. Gold up $69 (+1.6%) on resuming upward trend ahead of US jobs report. Cocoa down $79 (-1.3%). JKM up $0.22 (+1.1%) on strong LNG demand.
Kicker: Buy Dec26 gold futures vs sell Dec26 silver futures for a narrowing gold-silver ratio, JPMorgan.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Oil extended gains after reports that Iran attacked hostile targets in the Strait of Hormuz and seeks to bar US ships from the waterway. Brent rose above $84 a barrel while WTI neared $79 following the flare-up. Read →
Oil futures settled up more than $3 a barrel on Thursday as Iran reviewed a bill to ban US and Israeli vessels from the Strait of Hormuz. Brent hit $82.49 while WTI reached $77.29 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Read →
Copper traded as much as 0.9% higher on the London Metal Exchange, heading for a record close above the mid-May peak. Supply-side tightness and demand optimism from data centers and power grids drove the gains. Read →
US imports of Saudi Arabian oil dropped to zero in July, the first full month since 1985, per preliminary DOE data. Conflict-related disruptions in the Persian Gulf halted shipments that previously exceeded 800,000 barrels daily. Read →
Palm oil harvests on Borneo and Sumatra are disrupted as diesel prices surge and supplies tighten, forcing smallholders to cut collection rounds. Yields in Sarawak could fall 15-20% if prices stay high amid El Nino risks. Read →
Iranian parliament committee reviews bill banning US and Israeli vessels from Strait of Hormuz with fines up to 20% of cargo value. Brent settled up $3.04 to $82.49/bbl and WTI up $2.07 to $77.29/bbl on Thursday. Escalating tensions follow Houthi missile claims on Saudi tankers and troops, renewing Red Sea and Gulf supply disruption fears. Read →
Houthis claimed large-scale attack on Saudi-backed forces in Yemen killing or injuring hundreds. Front-month WTI rose 1% to $78.05/bbl in early Asian trade. Ongoing Red Sea shipping threats to Saudi crude exports sustain geopolitical risk premium. Read →
Houthis struck Saudi Najran province killing 11 civilians and targeted Saudi oil tankers in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Brent traded at $83.80/bbl and WTI at $78.33/bbl after reports of Iran considering Hormuz bans and fees. Coordinated attacks with Iraqi militias on energy infrastructure add to Middle East supply risk. Read →
Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia and Riyadh warned of imminent coordinated strikes with Iran-backed groups. Brent rose 1% to $83/bbl but heads for 7% weekly loss. Iran reviewing Hormuz bill barring US and Israeli ships heightens tanker and crude flow concerns. Read →
Saudi Aramco lowered September Arab Light official selling price to Asia to $2/bbl below Oman/Dubai average. Move comes as Hormuz reopening talks advance and some Gulf producers maintain flows. Pricing reflects current market conditions amid fluctuating supply expectations. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · EIA reports 33 Bcf storage build, larger than expected, sending Henry Hub futures lower to near two-month lows.
The EIA reported a 33 Bcf net injection for the week ended July 31, above consensus forecasts of around 30 Bcf. Working gas in storage reached 3,117 Bcf, 195 Bcf above the five-year average. Futures slipped as the print reinforced ample supply despite easing production and firmer LNG feedgas demand. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF jumps 4% to €58/MWh on low EU storage and slower injections amid mild weather.
Dutch TTF natural gas futures data updated as of August 7 shows contracts trading in the mid-to-high 50s EUR/MWh range. Volumes indicate active trading. This tracks the European benchmark amid current supply conditions. Read →
LNG JKM futures data for early August 2026 shows prices around $21.14/MMBtu. Northeast Asian summer cooling loads and supply tightness provide support. The Asian benchmark maintains a premium to European levels. Read →
JKM settled at $21.10/MMBtu, down 0.38%, supported by Northeast Asian summer cooling demand and tight Pacific supply. TTF pulled back faster, widening the JKM-TTF premium to around $4. The spread directs flexible Atlantic cargoes eastward. Read →
Power
What's moving · Constellation sells Texas gas plant to LS Power for $860M amid robust power demand, lifting 2026 earnings guidance.
Constellation Energy agreed to sell the 606 MW Brazos Valley natural gas-fired plant in Texas to LS Power for $860 million. The deal completes required divestitures tied to its $16.4 billion Calpine acquisition and comes as the company raised its 2026 adjusted operating earnings guidance to $11.50-$12.50 per share on strong power demand, including new nuclear supply deals. The move highlights robust electricity demand in ERCOT, one of the fastest-growing U.S. power markets. Read →
Hungary switched off decorative lighting at Budapest's parliament, Buda Castle and Chain Bridge amid a prolonged heatwave and record-low Danube water levels that forced its sole nuclear plant to largely shut down. Neighboring Romania also dimmed lights and rationed electricity to keep its nuclear reactor running. The measures reflect severe power supply strain across Central Europe from extreme heat and drought. Read →
Rapid fluctuations in AI data center power demand, sometimes spiking 50% above design capacity, are causing premature failures in batteries, generators, turbines and cooling systems. Experts warn these stresses create added costs, uptime risks and potential grid instability as large AI loads behave like volatile industrial swings. The issues compound existing transmission and reliability challenges for hyperscale buildouts worldwide. Read →
Coal
What's moving · India's July coal-fired power hits July record at 114.7 TWh on weak monsoon, lifting thermal demand.
Andhra Pradesh's electricity regulator granted in-principle approval on August 6 for distribution companies to procure 1,600 MW of coal-based thermal power via tariff-based competitive bidding under the DBFOO model. This marks the first phase of a long-term program to add up to 5,588 MW of coal capacity by 2035-36 and provide dispatchable power for evening peaks and renewable shortfalls. Bidding documents are expected shortly, with the selected developer to design, build, finance, own and operate the plant. Read →
China's most active coking coal futures contract rose more than 3% to 1,268.50 yuan per tonne on Friday amid strong demand signals. The move extended recent gains in the Dalian contract as steel-sector buying supported prices. The surge highlights tightening near-term supply expectations in the world's largest metallurgical coal market. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Rains soak eastern Corn Belt as corn, soybeans test multi-week lows on yield optimism.
Private estimates raised U.S. corn yields, pressuring futures alongside improving weather forecasts. Corn and soybeans tested support as traders removed weather premium from recent rains in the western Corn Belt. Wheat showed relative strength on export concerns elsewhere. Read →
StoneX customer survey pegged 2026 U.S. corn yield at 184.8 bushels per acre for 16.16 billion bushels total, above USDA's 183.0. Soybean yield came in at 53.0 bushels per acre for 4.47 billion bushels. These private figures above official estimates contribute to bearish sentiment in grain markets ahead of the August WASDE. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Copper hits fresh records near $6.71/lb on COMEX and LME amid DRC export ban and Codelco mine disruptions tightening supply.
Copper prices on the LME hit a six-month high as supply worries continue to fuel gains. The DRC ban on copper concentrate exports and ongoing issues at major mines tighten availability. Zinc hit a four-year high at $3,795 amid low supplies while aluminum rose 0.5% to $3,258. Read →
Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula smelter in the DRC produced record volumes of high-strength sulphuric acid as a by-product. Sales to local mining operations offset cost pressures in the Copperbelt region. The acid output provides additional margin for the operation amid ramp-up challenges. Read →
Zinc futures on India’s MCX rose 0.49% to Rs 396.80 per kg on higher participant bets. The move aligns with LME zinc trading near four-year highs around $3,763 per tonne amid global supply tightness. Strong demand supports the industrial metal. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · CMRG directs steel mills to halt Rio Tinto talks for September shipments, pressuring Australia's top iron ore supplier amid annual contract talks.
The China Iron and Steel Association called for wider use of yuan-denominated index pricing in iron ore. It said the shift would better reflect supply and demand in China's dominant market and complement existing dollar benchmarks via port-side spot transactions. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Central bank gold buying and $3bn July ETF inflows drive precious metals rebound.
The People’s Bank of China has built up gold inventories in Hong Kong over recent months, accelerating a shift of reserves from London. The move supports Hong Kong’s effort to expand as a bullion trading center with a new clearing system. Additional central bank demand bolsters physical gold offtake and prices. Read →
World Gold Council data shows global gold-backed ETFs recorded US$3bn net inflows in July, reversing prior outflows and lifting AUM 1% to $530bn. European funds led with $2bn, including strong buying from the UK and Switzerland; holdings rose 23 tonnes to 4,068t. Year-to-date inflows reach $11bn as investors re-enter at lower prices. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Trump summons mining CEOs including MP Materials, Rio Tinto and BHP to White House critical minerals summit Friday to counter China dependence.
Ernest Scheyder · Reuters · Thu, Aug 6, 6:22 PM ET
MP Materials posted a narrower Q2 net loss of $20.3 million versus $30.9 million a year earlier, beating adjusted expectations at breakeven after $17.6 million in US government price support payments. Processing revenue in California nearly quadrupled to $94.4 million as the firm stopped China shipments; it also signed a gadolinium supply deal with a US aerospace customer and advanced its Texas magnet plant. The results highlight US policy backing for domestic rare earth output amid ongoing China export restrictions. Read →
The White House invited executives from Rio Tinto, BHP, MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Energy Fuels and others to a Friday meeting with President Trump to showcase deals advancing US critical minerals production and reduce reliance on China-controlled supply chains. The session follows last year's China export controls on rare earths and magnets; agencies were asked to detail recent MOUs and funding commitments. Attendees include leaders from antimony, copper and rare earth firms essential to defense and EV supply chains. Read →
Lynas reported record quarterly gross sales revenue of A$288.9 million for Q4 FY26, up 70% year-over-year, driven by higher NdPr pricing, heavier rare earth mix and premiums, with average selling price hitting A$98.2/kg. Closing cash reached A$1.209 billion; the firm expanded heavy rare earth capacity in Malaysia despite a 63% cost overrun to A$294 million from non-China equipment sourcing and purity specs, and signed a magnet plant deal. Results underscore Western efforts to build alternatives as China tightens controls on elements like samarium and gadolinium. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Houthi attacks and Hormuz chokepoint tensions slash tanker and dry-bulk traffic, lifting freight rates.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz totaled just 33 vessels Monday-Thursday, down from 50 the prior week. Kpler tracking noted minimal daily crossings, including one VLCC with Basrah crude. Markets monitor Iran-Oman negotiations for any partial reopening of the vital energy route. Read →
The Baltic Dry Index rose 3.3% to 2,936 points Tuesday on typhoon-driven demand for Capesize vessels. The gain marked a fourth straight session and the highest level since July 14. Iron ore, coal and grain freight rates firmed amid the weather disruption. Read →
Environment
What's moving · Republican senators move to repeal California vehicle emissions rules, pressuring state cap-and-trade program.
David Shepardson · Reuters · Thu, Aug 6, 5:48 PM ET
Four Republican senators introduced legislation to repeal California's Clean Air Act waivers for vehicle emissions standards. The move targets rules that exceed federal requirements and affect automakers nationwide. It signals further federal pressure on California's climate policies including its cap-and-trade system. Read →
Turkey's environment minister said COP31 in November will prioritize boosting demand for carbon credits to unlock over $50 billion in annual climate finance. The host nation aims to elevate voluntary and compliance carbon markets in global climate talks. This could support prices in voluntary carbon and related environmental commodities. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · RWA deposits tripled to $7.4B in Q2 while total DeFi deposits fell 15%, led by tokenized gold and yield assets.
Krisztian Sandor · CoinDesk · Thu, Aug 6, 6:10 PM ET
Tether announced a partnership with First Data and BKN301 to use its Hadron platform for issuing and managing tokenized institutional real estate assets in Saudi Arabia. The move supports the kingdom’s Vision 2030 diversification and marks Tether’s expansion beyond stablecoins and its $2.6B XAUT tokenized gold product into broader RWAs, with potential later extension to energy and infrastructure. Read →
RWA deposits on DeFi lending and DEX platforms reached $7.4B in Q2 2026, more than tripling from $2.3B a year earlier while aggregate DeFi deposits fell 15%. Tokenized gold (XAUT, PAXG) and yield-bearing products drove volumes, with RWA spot trading up 220% YoY even as broader DEX volumes declined sharply; perpetual futures RWA activity also grew on venues like Hyperliquid. Read →
Ondo Perps now accepts tokenized gold and silver as collateral for perpetual futures positions on its platform. The update lets holders of these RWAs post them directly as margin instead of stablecoins or selling holdings, enabling basis trades and higher capital efficiency for 24/7 leveraged exposure to commodities alongside equities. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · ConocoPhillips names CFO Andy O'Brien CEO as Q2 profit doubles on higher oil prices; Williams buys Momentum Midstream for up to $5.5B.
ConocoPhillips reported Q2 2026 net income of $3.9 billion, or $3.23 per share, more than double the $2.0 billion a year earlier. The gain was driven by a 36% rise in average realized oil and gas prices. CFO Andy O'Brien was named president and CEO effective Sept. 1, succeeding Ryan Lance who becomes executive chair. Read →
ConocoPhillips announced Ryan Lance will retire as CEO after 14 years and become executive chair. CFO Andy O'Brien succeeds him as president and CEO effective Sept. 1. Konnie Haynes-Welsh was appointed CFO. Read →
Williams Cos. agreed to acquire Momentum Midstream LLC from EnCap Flatrock Midstream for up to $5.5 billion, including $3.5 billion cash/debt and $2 billion in stock. The deal expands Williams' natural gas infrastructure connecting Haynesville to Gulf Coast LNG and power demand. Read →
Ratio Petroleum raised its all-cash takeover offer for Pharos Energy to about £146.4 million ($197 million), outbidding Serica Energy's £145.7 million bid. Pharos board withdrew support for Serica and now recommends Ratio's improved offer of 32.8 pence per share. Read →
ADNOC Logistics & Services agreed to acquire 11 tankers (six VLCCs and five VLGCs) for about $1.3 billion. Nine vessels come from the secondary market and two are newbuild resales; deliveries begin in Q3 2026 to support growing crude and LPG exports. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump signs proclamation imposing 15% tariff and minimum import prices on polysilicon and derivatives to protect U.S. production.
President Trump signed a proclamation Thursday imposing a 15% ad valorem tariff on polysilicon derivatives and a minimum import price program on polysilicon and derivatives. The measures take effect Dec. 4 and include incentives for U.S. manufacturing investments. Polysilicon is critical for semiconductors and solar panels, where China dominates global supply. Read →
President Trump signed a proclamation Thursday creating a minimum import price for polysilicon and imposing a 15% tariff on products made with the material. The action supports domestic production of a key component for semiconductors and solar panels, with tariffs effective in early December. U.S. polysilicon output has fallen below 2% of global supply. Read →
President Trump signed a proclamation Thursday imposing a minimum import price program on polysilicon and a 15% tariff on downstream derivatives. Commerce Secretary will create incentives for U.S. facility investments. The move protects national security by rebuilding domestic capacity for semiconductors and defense applications. Read →
The CFTC ordered UBS Financial Services Inc. to pay an $8 million civil monetary penalty for supervision failures in its anti-money laundering transaction monitoring systems. The order was announced Aug. 3. Failures affected compliance in derivatives and commodity markets. Read →
The CFTC ordered former Rep. George Santos to pay $35,000 and forfeit winnings for manipulative trading on a Kalshi event contract tied to the State of the Union. The order was announced July 31. It marks the agency's first such action against an elected official on a regulated prediction market. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders highlight the milestone as evidence of surging US domestic production and evolving global trade patterns reducing reliance on Saudi oil. The shift reshapes decades of US-Saudi energy ties and underscores energy independence trends. It matters for crude prices as supply dynamics tighten and geopolitical leverage changes. Read →
Traders note WTI and Brent gaining amid fears of disruptions from Iran's draft plan to restrict vessels in the strait. Geopolitical developments keep energy markets on edge with potential supply shock premiums. It impacts inflation outlooks and broader commodity sentiment as negotiations unfold. Read →
Traders discuss building positions in producers like Cameco and developers like NexGen and Paladin as spot shows signs of bottoming. Goldman Sachs long-term supply deficit thesis and BofA price target fuel optimism despite weekly downtrend. It signals potential multi-year bull case tied to nuclear demand growth. Read →
Technical traders analyze WTI completing a morning star reversal and potential contracting triangle setups driven by Hormuz developments. Renewed geopolitical focus overrides softer demand signals in the near term. It underscores how chokepoint risks can override fundamentals for crude volatility. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Samantha Dart, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, analyzes oil price paths if Strait of Hormuz conflict escalates or resolves, highlighting potential supply glut challenges even after interruptions end. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.