Last price as of Tue, Aug 11, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures. Click price for news.
Downey's Take
Crude up over $2 (+3%) to $84 (WTI) and $90 (Brent) on hopes for a US-Iran Hormuz deal fading after Trump demands compensation from Tehran. Refined product margins (spread above crude) continue to soar to record highs and are close to $100/barrel for diesel. Kpler data showed only six vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday versus a 10-day average of 11, with four commodity carriers including two empty refined product tankers entering and one LPG and one residual fuel tanker exiting. Pre-war daily transits averaged 130-140 vessels. Coffee up $4.4 (+1.4%). Iron Ore up $1.0 (+1.1%). Platinum up $18 (+1.0%). Cocoa up $55 (+0.9%). Nat Gas down $0.025 (-0.9%) on cooler weather forecasts cutting cooling demand and larger-than-expected storage builds.
Kicker: JPM sees Brent averaging $86/bbl in 3Q26 on rebalancing via demand losses and inventory draws amid Hormuz supply recovery.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
Anushree Mukherjee · Reuters · Tue, Aug 11, 4:05 AM ET
Brent crude futures rose $1.92, or 2.19%, to $89.64 a barrel and WTI rose $1.91 to $84.04 a barrel, their highest since July 31. Gains followed a 5% rally on Monday after President Trump demanded Iranian reparations, dimming prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Read →
Bullion spiked above $4,400 an ounce for the first time since early June before slipping as much as 0.7% on Tuesday. The move follows two days of gains driven by technical buying and inflows into Chinese gold ETFs ahead of U.S. inflation reports. Read →
Shandong inventories held by independent refiners fell to 360 million barrels in July, the lowest in eight months. Shrinking stockpiles could spur higher purchases of Iranian crude, boosting Tehran after slow sales. Read →
China's July crude imports averaged 7.78 million bpd over June-July, down 4.21 million bpd from pre-conflict levels. This matches Asia's total import decline as Middle East shipments fell due to the Iran war and Hormuz disruptions. Read →
The top gold miners resolved a disagreement over their Nevada joint venture. The truce removes a key obstacle to spinning off the assets via an IPO. Read →
The 11-member OPEC (excluding UAE) pumped 19.85 million bpd in July, up 1.17 million bpd month-on-month, extending recovery from May's low. Iraq posted the largest increase followed by Kuwait, with Iran also raising exports despite a mid-July US port blockade; Saudi output edged lower while Libya increased. The rise came as Gulf members restored supplies previously shut by the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure, though overall output remains well below quotas. Read →
Oil held a four-day advance with Brent near $88 per barrel and WTI above $82 after President Trump demanded Iran pay compensation for deaths and injuries, complicating prospects for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran had reiterated its own compensation and sanctions-relief demands as conditions for reopening. Prices advanced 5% in the prior session on the fading deal hopes. Read →
Chris Prentice and Harry Robertson · Reuters · Mon, Aug 10, 2026
Brent and WTI each jumped about 5% on Monday amid Iran-US demands over Strait of Hormuz reopening, while US stocks edged lower. Traders are watching Wednesday's July US CPI reading for clues on Fed rate policy, with oil's move adding to inflation focus. Gold touched a nine-week high as markets weighed geopolitical risks. Read →
Rosneft's Saratov refinery stopped processing crude after a Ukrainian drone attack on August 2 damaged facilities and caused fires, shutting its only crude distillation unit. The outage adds to recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure including the Taneco refinery. This tightens refined product supply in a market already facing geopolitical disruptions. Read →
US Natural Gas
What's moving · LNG feedgas flows hit one-month high of 17.9 bcfd, lifting Henry Hub futures over 4% Monday amid hotter weather forecasts.
Record natural gas short positioning met the summer's biggest weekend jump in forecast demand Monday, igniting a double-digit rally in futures after five straight weekly losses. September contract broke above a monthlong technical barrier, putting $3.00/MMBtu in view. Hotter weather outlooks and rising power-sector demand drove the rebound. Read →
US natural gas futures rose by the most in more than two months as an unusually large swing in weather forecasts triggered short-covering by money managers. Speculators had built the most bearish net short positions since 2020. The move lifted prices to a two-week high. Read →
US natural gas futures climbed about 4% to a one-week high on Monday. Daily flows to LNG export plants rose to a one-month high. Speculators boosted net short positions to the highest since February 2024 per CFTC data, setting up the rally. Read →
Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF rises over 5% to €58-61/MWh on persistent Hormuz uncertainty limiting Qatar LNG flows amid low EU storage.
Benchmark Dutch TTF futures rose more than 10% on Monday as talks between Iran and Oman failed to assure traders of quick LNG flow resumption from the Persian Gulf. Renewed tensions keep 20% of global LNG supply at risk, supporting European prices ahead of winter refill needs. JKM holds steady near $21/MMBtu as Asian spot demand provides limited offset. Read →
Dutch TTF contract rose 5.7% to 58.80 euros per megawatt-hour in afternoon trading on uncertainties over Strait of Hormuz reopening. Disruptions from the Iran conflict continue to choke LNG exports from Qatar and the Gulf, tightening northwest Europe supply. Low storage levels amplify the price support as injection season continues. Read →
Power
What's moving · PJM proposes FERC-backed data center rules shifting state-level decisions on large-load interconnections amid ongoing capacity shortfalls.
PJM proposed to FERC that states handle data center interconnection and curtailment decisions rather than the grid operator. The plan includes a limited emergency reliability backstop procurement auction to address the 6.8 GW shortfall from the latest capacity auction. Capacity costs hit $16.4 billion, driving up consumer bills as data center demand surges. Read →
ERCOT continues processing large-load requests, with data centers dominating the queue at 95% share. New protocols target 75 MW+ projects under SB6, requiring studies and commitments. Demand growth pressures grid reliability as solar, wind, and batteries help meet current loads near 62,500 MW. Read →
Gov. Abbott's order pauses new ERCOT data center connections pending audit of 474 GW queue, mostly data centers. Delays could hit 49.8 GW and cost up to $15 billion per BNEF analysis. Advanced projects targeting Q1/Q2 2027 energization may preserve timelines post-audit starting after Aug. 20. Read →
Coal
What's moving · China's July coal imports hit 43.73 million tons but August seaborne shipments seen falling as safety curbs ease.
China's total coal imports rose 23% year-on-year to 43.73 million metric tons in July after safety inspections cut domestic mine output. August seaborne imports are estimated at 31.23 million tons by DBX Commodities, the first monthly decline in four months. This signals easing import demand as production normalizes, pressuring seaborne thermal coal prices after recent gains. Read →
India produced 69.75 million tons of coal in July, up 7.51% from a year earlier. Dispatch volumes jumped 17.34% to 86.33 million tons. Stronger domestic supply reduces import needs and weighs on seaborne thermal coal prices. Read →
Agriculture
What's moving · Ukraine slashes 2026/27 grain export forecast 12% to 38-40M tons on Russian port attacks, spurring rail alternatives via Moldova.
Ukraine's agriculture minister lowered the 2026/27 export target to 38-40 million tons from 43 million tons after Russian attacks halted shipments from Odesa ports. The cut covers wheat, corn and barley and risks an 11 million ton storage shortfall. Reduced Black Sea flows tighten global grain supplies ahead of the northern hemisphere harvest. Read →
Ukraine seeks a rail corridor through Moldova to Romania's Constanța port with a proposed 50% freight discount to bypass Black Sea disruptions. The route could handle up to 4.5 million tons annually or 10% of exports. Talks focus on volumes and timelines as attacks continue on Odesa terminals. Read →
Corn futures climbed 0.09% to 438.63 US cents per bushel on higher crude oil prices lifting biofuel feedstock demand. StoneX projects the 2026 US harvest at 16.16 billion bushels while USDA lowered good-to-excellent ratings for a third straight week. Abundant supplies and Black Sea export expectations capped gains. Read →
Base Metals
What's moving · Copper holds above $14,000/t on LME as US inflows tighten global supplies amid tariff expectations.
LME three-month nickel fell to $16,760/t in Asian trade, down $369/t from the prior close, on expectations that Indonesia will raise nickel ore mining quotas for a major operation. The potential quota increase, possibly more than tripling for one miner, signals greater 2026 supply and weighed on sentiment. Indonesia's overall 2026 RKAB quota stands at 260-270 million wet metric tonnes with possible upward revisions. Read →
Iron Ore & Steel
What's moving · BHP Port Hedland strike and China steel export drop to 65Mt Jan-Jul drive iron ore and steel markets.
Additional workers joined the rolling strikes at BHP's Port Hedland operations in Western Australia. The action risks disrupting shipments from the world's largest iron ore export hub, which handles a large share of Australian supply to China. Supply concerns provide near-term support to iron ore prices despite soft Chinese demand. Read →
GACC data showed China's finished steel exports totaled 65 million tonnes in January-July 2026, down 4.4% year-on-year. July exports fell 1.9% month-on-month to 10.12 million tonnes. The decline reflects the impact of new export licensing requirements and points to weaker overseas demand for Chinese steel products. Read →
BHP workers at Port Hedland voted in favour of strike action amid a pay dispute. The hub ships the bulk of Pilbara iron ore exports, raising risks of vessel delays and supply tightness. The move adds upside pressure to seaborne iron ore benchmarks. Read →
China's finished steel exports reached nearly 65 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2026, down 4.4% year-on-year per GACC data. July volume was 10.12 million tonnes. Lower export flows ease pressure on domestic steel prices and signal cooling global demand for Chinese output. Read →
Precious Metals
What's moving · Gold holds near $4,400 after touching two-month high on PBOC buying and softer US jobs data ahead of CPI.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,365.65/oz after hitting $4,434.84, its highest since June 5. The pullback follows a three-session rally fueled by flows and sentiment shift after weak July US jobs data reduced near-term rate-hike odds. Markets await Wednesday CPI and Thursday PPI prints to gauge Fed policy. Read →
Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · Neodymium fell 1% to 965,000 CNY/T on Aug 10 amid China supply dominance.
NioCorp released its 2026 Feasibility Study for the Elk Creek project in Nebraska. It projects a 40-year mine life producing ferroniobium, scandium trioxide, titanium tetrachloride, NdPr oxide, dysprosium oxide, terbium oxide and two other rare earth carbonates. The study cites $4.1 billion pre-tax NPV8%, $37.4 billion life-of-mine revenue and diversification away from China-controlled supply chains for defense and tech uses. Read →
Neodymium traded at 965,000 CNY per tonne on August 10, down 1.03% from the prior session. The price is 5.85% lower over the past month yet 47.33% higher year-over-year. China remains the dominant producer of this key permanent-magnet input. Read →
MP Materials posted Q2 revenue of $108.5 million, up 89% year-over-year, driven by NdPr sales. The company secured a long-term gadolinium oxide supply agreement with a U.S. aerospace and defense customer at locked-in pricing. Shares rallied more than 6% as investors focused on U.S. supply-chain and defense initiatives. Read →
Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Hormuz traffic crashes to 6 vessels Monday as peace hopes fade, lifting tanker rates while BDI slips to 3,083.
Kpler data showed only six vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday versus a 10-day average of 11, with four commodity carriers including two empty product tankers entering and one LPG and one residual fuel tanker exiting. Pre-war daily transits averaged 130-140 vessels. The drop comes as U.S.-Iran peace talks stall and President Trump demands compensation from Iran, keeping energy shipping disrupted. Read →
The Baltic Dry Index declined 6 points to 3,083 on Monday after recent gains. The index tracks spot rates for Capesize, Panamax and Supramax vessels carrying iron ore, coal and grain. Monday's move reflects softening in larger segments amid ongoing geopolitical tensions elsewhere in shipping markets. Read →
A Houthi missile strike reportedly hit a Saudi commercial vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, killing three crew members including two Pakistanis and one Indonesian. The attack adds to Red Sea risks as traffic through the strait remained near its recent average of 25 vessels on Monday per Kpler. It underscores persistent threats to energy and commodity shipping in the region. Read →
Environment
What's moving · EUAs slip to 82 EUR/t as energy prices surge on heatwave and Hormuz LNG uncertainty.
EU carbon allowances gave up Friday's gains to settle lower Monday after hitting a nine-day high last week. Prices tracked higher energy markets amid a new European heatwave and ongoing uncertainty over LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The moves reflect tight linkage between EUA prices and power-sector demand drivers. Read →
Nine analysts surveyed by Reuters lowered average EUA price forecasts to €79.97/t for 2026 and €89.13/t for 2027 after the European Commission's July overhaul proposals. The changes ease the emissions cap decline rate and extend free allowances to support industrial competitiveness. Lower forecasts reflect expectations of reduced scarcity in the compliance market. Read →
Proposed EU ETS reforms would slow allowance withdrawals from the market and keep free allocations longer, easing CBAM certificate costs for Turkish steel exporters. Allowances trade near €82/t while the official CBAM price sits at €75.28/t. Slower tightening reduces near-term cost pressure on non-EU suppliers subject to the border mechanism. Read →
Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · UK FCA advances tokenized gold collateral rules as London defends 70% global bullion trade share.
The UK Financial Conduct Authority is consulting banks on standards allowing tokenized gold as collateral in wholesale markets including uncleared OTC derivatives. London handles 70% of world gold notional trade and seeks to counter Shanghai competition via digitization. Progress on the framework is expected within months as part of a broader digital assets strategy. Read →
The FCA is preparing rules for tokenized gold representing physical bullion ownership, focusing on its use as collateral. The move supports UK plans to digitize wholesale markets and add tens of billions of pounds to annual output. An FCA spokesperson confirmed monitoring tokenization developments and plans further statements soon. Read →
XAUE Protocol and ListaDAO started a rewards campaign running August 10 to October 8 for slisXAUE, a yield-bearing token on Tether Gold (XAU₮). Users deposit XAU₮ via Lista RWA to receive slisXAUE and can earn up to 8% combined APY through time-weighted holdings. The effort expands tokenized gold utility in DeFi while preserving gold exposure. Read →
Industry News
Corporate & Deals
What's moving · Barrick-Newmont $1.95B Nevada Gold Mines deal clears path for Barrick North American gold IPO amid Q2 results.
Barrick and Newmont agreed to contribute excluded properties including Barrick’s Fourmile and Newmont’s Fiberline and Mike into the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture. Newmont will pay Barrick $1.95 billion in cash and consented to Barrick’s planned IPO of its North American gold assets. The deal resolves all outstanding governance disputes from the 2019 JV and positions both firms to maximize JV value. Read →
Barrick and Newmont reached an agreement to contribute excluded properties into Nevada Gold Mines and modernize the JV agreement with enhanced governance. Newmont will pay $1.95 billion to Barrick for the contributions and consented to Barrick’s North American gold assets IPO. The pact ends all disputes related to the JV. Read →
BP agreed to sell a 20% interest in the Venezuelan portion of the Cocuina-Manakin natural gas field to Trinidad and Tobago’s NGC. The cross-border field holds 1 trillion cubic feet of reserves; most output targets Atlantic LNG amid Trinidad supply shortages. Final investment decision is expected by year-end. Read →
Uniper reported first-half adjusted core profit of €711 million, up 88% year-on-year, and adjusted net profit more than doubled to €388 million. The gains stemmed from stronger performance in its gas business compared with the prior year. The utility reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance. Read →
Regulation & Government
What's moving · Trump narrows Jones Act waiver extension to 90 days amid Iran war fuel disruptions.
President Donald Trump extended the Jones Act waiver for 90 days to allow foreign-flagged ships to carry oil, gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other commodities between U.S. ports. New rules require case-by-case voyage approvals after domestic shipbuilders pushed back. The move addresses shipping bottlenecks from the Iran conflict to stabilize energy prices. Read →
Nayera Abdallah, Menna Alaa El-Din, Jonathan Saul, Kate Abne · Reuters · Mon, Aug 10, 2026
The Caroline Bezengi tanker, loaded with nearly 1 million barrels of Russian crude and under EU, UK and other sanctions, grounded off Oman's Hallaniyat Islands nature reserve. The resulting oil slick spans about 390 square km with no response vessels observed. The incident highlights risks in the shadow fleet evading sanctions. Read →
New York State's $30 million Agricultural Resiliency Against Tariffs Program offers direct payments of $1,000 to $25,000 to eligible dairy, livestock, specialty crop and aquaculture producers hit by federal tariffs. Applications close Tuesday, Aug 11 at 11:59 p.m. ET. Read →
Social buzz
What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Traders highlight Brent hitting above $90 with WTI also rallying sharply after Monday's gains, driven by Strait of Hormuz tensions, potential Jones Act waivers, and OPEC+ production hints. Discussions center on this as a supply shock boosting energy prices broadly rather than demand-driven, with gasoline impacts noted. Read →
Uranium traders and analysts note spot U3O8 climbing $0.50 to $86.75/lb at 3-month highs per brokers like TradeTech and Numerco, with NexGen quarterly updates and retreating shorts adding momentum. Focus is on whether this breaks the recent narrow trading range amid steady nuclear demand. Read →
Gold traders discuss the metal extending gains with a strong 2% intra-day move, supported by softer US labor data, lower yields, and reduced Fed hike expectations plus geopolitics. Caution on chasing highs with suggestions to buy dips for long-term holders. Read →
Watch & Listen
Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
Francisco Blanch said only 5 vessels/day transit Hormuz vs. needed normalization; without resolution, oil will creep higher into winter. He discussed U.S.-Iran war impacts, price outlook, and Europe energy risks on Squawk Box. Watch/Listen →
Amrita Sen warned of a diesel crunch from Middle East/Ukraine wars and rising winter demand, with only 5 Hormuz transits/day (vs. 14 post-MoU). She noted China’s import role and that crude fundamentals remain bullish despite deal hopes. Watch/Listen →
Prediction Markets
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.