Morgan Downey's Commodity News
The gen alpha daily zeitgeist of the physical commodity world
Oil · Gas · Power · Coal · Ags · Metals · Rare Earths · Shipping · Environment · RWA
Thursday, June 11, 2026 · 43 stories
Markets at a glance
WTI Crude
89.48
-0.6%
-0.55
Nat Gas
3.126
-1.9%
-0.059
Dutch TTF
50.27
+0.6%
+0.28
Last price as of Thu, Jun 11, 5:35 AM ET · 1-day change vs prior settle. Continuous front-month futures.
Downey's Take
Nat Gas down $0.059 (-1.9%) on cooler US temperature forecasts curbing near-term cooling demand.
Cotton down $1.27 (-1.6%) on improved US Cotton Belt rainfall boosting crop prospects.
Platinum down $20 (-1.2%) on broader precious metals weakness amid renewed Middle East tensions.
Copper down $0.06 (-1.0%) on Middle East uncertainty and rate-hike expectations weighing on industrial demand.
Kicker: JPMorgan recommends long gold/short platinum spread on supply rebalancing risks.
Drivers and the Kicker trade idea are sourced from third-party news and bank or desk commentary. Informational only, not BoxWood trade advice.
The marquee commodity stories of the day
China cuts oil imports sharply amid Iran war, easing price pressure
China’s crude oil imports fell sharply during the Iran conflict, plugging a roughly three-million-barrel daily hole with minimal visible disruption and helping hold down global oil prices. Analysts question how long Beijing can sustain the lower import levels without broader economic effects.
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Oil
What's moving · Oil prices surge on Middle East tensions and big US crude stock draw.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| WTI Crude |
89.48 |
-0.6%
-0.55 |
+55.8% |
+31.5% |
+26.2% |
| Brent |
92.41 |
-0.7%
-0.69 |
+51.9% |
+33.2% |
+27.1% |
| RBOB Gasoline |
3.054 |
-0.3%
-0.009 |
+79.1% |
+42.5% |
+39.7% |
| Heating Oil |
3.601 |
-0.3%
-0.012 |
+69.8% |
+64.5% |
+69.8% |
Oil surges 4% to two-month high on Middle East tensions.
Nicole Jao ·
Reuters · Wed, Jun 11, 2025, 12:16 PM ET
Brent crude settled at $69.77 per barrel, up $2.90 or 4.34%, while WTI rose to $68.15, up $3.17 or 4.88%. Both benchmarks hit their highest levels since early April after reports that the U.S. was preparing to evacuate its embassy in Iraq due to heightened security risks, with military dependents also potentially leaving Bahrain.
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OPEC May output hits lowest since 2000 on Iran blockade.
OPEC's 11-member output fell 1.06 million barrels per day month-on-month to 16.13 million bpd in May, the lowest in over two decades per a Reuters survey. The drop stems mainly from a U.S. naval blockade cutting Iran's exports and the Strait of Hormuz closure slashing other Gulf producers' shipments, hitting OPEC+ targets hard.
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US crude stocks drop 7.2M barrels, biggest draw in weeks.
U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 7.2 million barrels to 426.5 million in the week ended June 5, exceeding expectations for a 4 million-barrel draw. Refinery crude runs rose as operators ramped up to offset Middle East supply shortfalls from the Iran conflict.
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Indian refiners secure crude and LPG through August.
Nidhi Verma and Siyi Liu ·
Reuters · Thu, Jun 11, 2026
India's refiners have locked in enough crude to cover needs through at least August by increasing purchases from ADNOC and other suppliers, including ship-to-ship transfers of LPG. The moves come as the world's third-largest oil importer navigates disruptions from the Iran war and Hormuz issues.
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US Natural Gas
What's moving · US natgas futures rebound on stronger power burn and late-June heat forecasts amid LNG maintenance.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Henry Hub |
3.126 |
-1.9%
-0.059 |
-15.2% |
-10.5% |
-5.2% |
US natgas futures rise on hotter weather, stronger demand outlook
Front-month July futures rose 4.5 cents or 1.4% to settle at $3.185/MMBtu on forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather boosting gas-fired power demand over the next two weeks. LNG feedgas flows fell to 16.5 bcfd in June from 17.1 bcfd in May due to spring maintenance at export plants, trimming export volumes. Lower US production narrowed the storage surplus to about 5.6% above normal.
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Natgas futures rebound on sizzling power burn, LNG feedgas recovery
July futures snapped a three-day slide, bouncing as power burn topped 43 Bcf/d with early summer heat lifting electricity demand and spot prices. LNG feedgas deliveries recovered signs of life above 18 Bcf/d despite maintenance. The rebound built momentum ahead of Thursday's EIA storage report, with builds expected to trail the prior year's pace.
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Southeast cash prices surge near $4 on summer heat wave
A building heat wave drove Southeast cash prices to a 14-week high near $4/MMBtu, lifting the national average even as discounted Western Canadian and Permian supply weighed on some hubs. Rising temperatures increased cooling-related power demand for gas. The move highlights regional strength in physical markets despite broader futures volatility.
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US natgas futures rise ahead of storage data on weather outlook
Futures picked up on forecasts for warmer weather supporting demand while LNG exports faced maintenance constraints. Traders positioned ahead of the weekly EIA storage report expected to reflect modest builds. The moves underscore sensitivity to near-term weather and inventory trends in a market with ample overall supply.
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Global Nat Gas & LNG
What's moving · TTF rises to 50.5 EUR/MWh amid Middle East supply risks and storage refill needs.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Dutch TTF · €/MWh |
50.27 |
+0.6%
+0.28 |
+78.5% |
+39.0% |
+80.5% |
| Dutch TTF · $/MMBtu |
16.99 |
+0.6%
+0.09 |
+78.5% |
+39.0% |
+80.5% |
| JKM · $/MMBtu |
18.92 |
+0.2%
+0.03 |
+96.9% |
+51.8% |
+73.2% |
Uniper signs LOI for 2 mtpa from Canada’s Ksi Lisims LNG
German utility Uniper signed a letter of interest with Ksi Lisims LNG for up to 2 million tonnes per annum of supply from the planned British Columbia project. The deal advances long-term diversification of Uniper’s LNG portfolio away from higher-risk sources. It supports Europe’s push for secure, lower-emission Atlantic basin LNG amid ongoing global supply constraints.
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TTF climbs to 50.51 EUR/MWh, up over 1% on the day
European benchmark TTF natural gas futures reached 50.51 EUR/MWh on June 11, gaining more than 1% intraday. The move reflects sustained pressure from Middle East geopolitical risks and the need to rebuild storage inventories ahead of winter. Prices have risen over 8% in the past month and nearly 39% year-over-year.
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JKM edges up to 18.92 USD/MMBtu on Asian demand
Northeast Asian LNG spot price JKM climbed to 18.92 USD per million British thermal units. The gain tracks firmer regional demand and competition for cargoes diverted from disrupted Middle East routes. JKM has increased more than 11% over the past month.
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Germany adds fifth FSRU to bolster LNG imports
Deutsche Energy Terminal confirmed Germany’s fifth floating storage and regasification unit will start operations in September. The addition expands regasification capacity to handle more spot and contracted LNG cargoes. It comes as Europe competes with Asia for flexible supplies amid tight global markets and storage refill targets.
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Power
What's moving · Abbott orders ERCOT/PUCT to make data centers pay full infrastructure costs, shielding Texas ratepayers.
Abbott directs ERCOT, PUC to shield Texans from data center costs
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott directed the Public Utility Commission of Texas and ERCOT to require data centers to pay all electric infrastructure costs and ensure residential bills fall when facilities interconnect. The directive, issued via letter to PUC Chairman Thomas Gleeson and ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas, orders action by July 31 to reduce residential transmission costs and a joint memo by July 17 on safeguards. It addresses rapid data center growth straining the ERCOT grid without passing costs to ratepayers.
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ComEd summer price hits 10.399¢/kWh as PJM capacity costs flow through
ComEd’s Price to Compare for June-September 2026 is set at 10.399¢/kWh, up from winter levels, driven by the PJM 2026/27 capacity auction clearing at the $329.17/MW-day cap. The increase stems from data center-driven load growth pushing capacity prices higher, with costs passed directly to Illinois customers via the supply component. CUB notes a CEJA credit partially offsets the spike but warns elevated prices will persist for years.
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Abbott tells PUCT, ERCOT: data centers must not raise resident bills
Gov. Greg Abbott sent a letter directing PUCT and ERCOT to prevent data center infrastructure costs from being passed to residential customers and to ensure new connections lower resident bills. The order requires data centers to fully fund their grid connections and infrastructure while reviewing authorities to protect Texans and resources. It responds to surging ERCOT interconnection requests from hyperscale facilities.
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Coal
What's moving · Thermal coal futures hit $150+/t on Indonesia export curbs and Asia restocking amid oil crunch.
Agriculture
What's moving · Grains firm overnight ahead of Thursday's June WASDE as funds ease selling pressure on corn, soybeans, wheat.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Corn |
417 |
-0.4%
-2 |
-5.2% |
-4.8% |
-39.0% |
| Wheat |
585 |
-0.4%
-2 |
+15.4% |
+11.2% |
-14.0% |
| Soybeans |
1,121 |
-0.2%
-2 |
+8.8% |
+7.6% |
-25.7% |
| Sugar |
13.92 |
+0.0%
+0.00 |
-7.3% |
-14.4% |
-20.6% |
| Coffee |
244.7 |
+0.0%
+0.1 |
-29.8% |
-29.6% |
+55.4% |
| Cocoa |
3,828 |
-0.4%
-14 |
-36.9% |
-61.2% |
+62.9% |
| Cotton |
76.21 |
-1.6%
-1.27 |
+18.6% |
+17.0% |
-12.4% |
Corn, soybean, wheat futures advance before June WASDE.
Corn, soybean and wheat futures posted gains on June 10 as traders adjusted positions ahead of the USDA's June WASDE report. The report will update estimates on grain supplies, ending stocks and global production. Market reaction matters for farmers, agribusinesses and commodity investors given the impact on prices and strategies.
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June WASDE expected to show modest old-crop changes.
USDA will release June Crop Production and WASDE reports at 11 a.m. CDT on June 11. Pre-report analyst polls indicate little change expected across crops, with modest old-crop balance sheet adjustments possible. Production changes are uncommon in June given favorable early-season conditions.
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USDA June WASDE due Thursday after grain selloff.
USDA will release its June Crop Production and WASDE reports at 11 a.m. CDT on Thursday, June 11. The update follows a mass exodus from long positions in May and early June. Traders will look for renewed confidence in the balance sheets amid recent price weakness.
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Base Metals
What's moving · SHFE base metals mostly fell midday Jun 11 amid macro caution and geopolitical tensions, with zinc, nickel, and copper leading declines.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Copper |
6.21 |
-1.0%
-0.06 |
+10.2% |
+28.7% |
+36.7% |
SHFE zinc, nickel, copper lead midday declines as lithium rises.
As of midday close on Jun 11, SHFE copper fell 1.4%, zinc dropped 2.48%, nickel declined 1.49%, and tin fell 1.08%, while aluminum rose 0.33% and lead gained 0.68%. Lithium carbonate futures rose over 3%. The moves occurred against a backdrop of renewed US-Iran tensions and higher oil prices weighing on risk assets and industrial demand outlooks for energy-transition and base metals.
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Nickel prices extend downward trend on Jun 11 amid CPI spike.
Nickel prices continued lower on Jun 11 following US May CPI data showing a three-year high in year-over-year growth. Escalating Middle East conflict, including strikes and Strait of Hormuz concerns, lifted oil prices and reinforced expectations for higher-for-longer rates, pressuring nickel and broader base metals demand. The report ties the price action directly to these macro and geopolitical factors affecting stainless steel and battery supply chains.
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Precious Metals
What's moving · US CPI at 4.2% and Mideast escalation fuel rate-hike bets, driving gold to six-month lows near $4,100.
| Market |
Last |
1D |
YTD |
1Y |
5Y |
| Gold |
4,106 |
-0.7%
-28 |
-5.1% |
+21.4% |
+118.7% |
| Silver |
64.25 |
-0.8%
-0.49 |
-8.4% |
+77.4% |
+128.4% |
| Platinum |
1,671 |
-1.2%
-20 |
-17.9% |
+31.3% |
+45.3% |
| Palladium |
1,250 |
+0.3%
+4 |
-23.3% |
+17.7% |
-55.0% |
Georgia central bank buys $100mn more gold
National Bank of Georgia purchased $100 million in LBMA gold bars, lifting reserves to a record $7 billion. Gold now comprises 15.5% of reserves. The move aligns with Q1 global central-bank purchases exceeding 970 tonnes.
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Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
What's moving · China's rare-earth exports to Japan plunge 80%, forcing firms to scramble for alternatives from Australia and India.
China's rare-earth exports to Japan plunge 80%.
China's exports of seven restricted rare earths, including dysprosium and terbium, to Japan fell more than 80% year-on-year in March and April. Limits imposed by Beijing's Ministry of Commerce in April 2025 triggered the drop. Japanese companies now pursue sourcing from Australia and India plus recycling to secure supply for magnets and defense uses.
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US firms find some critical minerals nearly unobtainable from China.
The U.S.-China Business Council reported that export controls and licensing delays keep certain rare earth elements nearly unobtainable for U.S. companies. Three-quarters of affected firms are actively seeking new suppliers. The controls, enacted April 2025 in response to U.S. tariffs, persist despite prior summit commitments.
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Over 70 critical minerals pacts signed but most lack teeth.
Governments have signed more than 70 critical minerals agreements since 2021 to cut China dependence. Over 60% remain non-binding MOUs or frameworks without project finance or offtake commitments. China still controls 60-90% of rare-earth refining capacity across key supply chains.
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Shipping & Freight
What's moving · Baltic Dry Index drops to 2,771 on June 10 amid cooling Capesize demand after eight-day losing streak.
Baltic Dry Index falls 3.4% to 2,818 on Tuesday.
The Baltic Dry Index fell 3.4% to 2,818 points on June 9, its lowest since May 1 and eighth straight decline, driven by weakness in Capesize rates. Capesize earnings dropped sharply while smaller segments showed minor gains. The move signals cooling demand for larger dry-bulk vessels hauling iron ore and coal.
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Baltic Dry Index falls for eighth day as Capesize demand cools.
The Baltic Dry Index declined 3.4% to 2,818 points on Tuesday, its longest losing streak since mid-January, as demand cooled in larger vessel segments after a multi-month rally. The gauge tracks rates for Capesize, Panamax and Supramax ships moving raw materials. This follows the index reaching highs not seen since late 2023.
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VLCC index hits record $423,736/day on MEG-China route.
Baltic Exchange TD3C MEG-China VLCC index reached $423,736 per day, lifting the global VLCC average to $280,941 per day, the highest since at least 2008. Suezmax rates also surged, with MEG-Med more than tripling. The spike follows geopolitical disruptions boosting Middle East Gulf tanker demand.
Read →
Environment
What's moving · EU ETS review to extend free allowances for industry investments drives complex amid 77 EUR/t prices.
EU ETS review will extend free allowances for industry decarbonization investmen
Kate Abnett ·
Reuters · Wed, Jun 10, 2026
An internal European Commission document reveals the July 15 ETS revision proposal will extend free CO2 permits to heavy industry in return for local investments. Governments must also spend more ETS revenues on decarbonizing covered sectors. The changes aim to support competitiveness while maintaining the system's role in cutting emissions.
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Real-World Assets & On-Chain Commodities
What's moving · ASK Group-Keeta JV to tokenize Gulf oil, gold, copper drives RWA commodity push.
ASK Group, Keeta JV to tokenize Gulf oil, gold, copper by 2027
UAE's ASK Group and Keeta, backed by Eric Schmidt, launched a joint venture to tokenize physical Gulf commodities including oil, gold, silver and copper onto a public blockchain exchange by 2027. Tokens will be 1:1 backed by audited physical reserves with on-chain proof and sub-second settlement, targeting global retail and institutional investors. The move expands direct fractional ownership of key commodities beyond traditional futures or ETFs.
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DBS Bank to launch tokenized physical gold for retail via digibank
DBS Bank will offer DBS Physical Gold Tokens to retail customers in Singapore starting H2 2026 through its digibank app, with each token backed by one gram of physical gold in a Singapore vault. The product may also list on DBS Digital Exchange for accredited investors. This marks Singapore's first major retail tokenized physical gold offering, broadening access beyond wealth clients.
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Tether, Fasset launch gold-backed Visa card with XAUT rewards
Tether partnered with Fasset to launch a Visa card allowing users to spend fiat while earning up to 6% cashback in XAUT, Tether's gold-backed token. The card operates on the Visa network with rewards seeded by up to $1 million in XAUT, targeting emerging markets where Fasset sees high volume. It adds real-world utility and spending layer to tokenized gold holdings.
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Corporate & Deals
What's moving · SLB signs AI modernization deal with Venezuela's PDVSA as Shell CEO flags year-plus oil market rebalance amid draws.
Regulation & Government
What's moving · USTR proposes 10-12.5% Section 301 tariffs on products from 60 economies over forced-labor import rules, exempting most energy and critical minerals.
China reaffirms rare earth export ban on Japan despite US request
China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson reaffirmed that export restrictions on rare earth products and dual-use items to Japan remain in place. The ban, tied to national security and military end-use concerns amid Taiwan tensions, was upheld hours after reported US requests for resumption of shipments. The policy tightens scrutiny on rare earth oxides, metals, and magnets, pressuring Japan's supply chains for defense, EVs, and electronics.
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Canada extends steel and aluminum tariff measures one year
Canada announced a one-year extension of its steel tariff-rate quota regime for imports from non-CUSMA partners to June 27, 2027, and horizontal tariff relief on eligible US steel and aluminum products to June 30, 2027, subject to cabinet approval. The measures shield domestic workers from global excess capacity while providing industry certainty. Imports exceeding quotas remain subject to 50% tariffs.
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CFTC proposes rules expanding prediction market oversight
The CFTC under the Trump administration proposed new rules governing prediction markets, permitting most sports-related event contracts while aiming to curb manipulation risks. The framework seeks to clarify federal oversight amid state challenges and jurisdictional disputes over event contracts. It advances a broader permissive stance on the growing sector while maintaining CFTC authority.
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What traders and commodity market feeds are talking about
Iran shuts Hormuz after US attacks driving oil spike talk
Traders on X and r/oil discuss Iran's reported closure of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation, with concerns over supply disruptions pushing WTI and Brent higher. Discussions highlight tanker 'dark' transits, potential 5%+ oil gains, and impacts on global prices and Asian importers. Matters for crude as geopolitical risk premiums rise amid ongoing US-Iran tensions.
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Uranium spot hits yearly high low as UEC faces debate
Uranium voices debate $UEC's long cash burn and dilution versus its large US resource base amid nuclear demand growth. Spot uranium prints highest lows in years with active capital markets. Relevant for uranium sector as traders watch for $120+ targets and position through pullbacks.
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Gold stays strong near 4300 as safe haven in turmoil
Commodity traders note gold and silver lacking confirmed bottoms but holding amid Iran/Hormuz risks and China PPI strength. Daily recaps highlight relative strength in energy names alongside gold. Key for precious metals as real assets gain favor over tech in risk regime.
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r/oil megathread buzzes on Hormuz closure and surges
r/oil threads focus on Iran's Hormuz actions, oil surging nearly 5% in two days, and tanker flows. Traders debate backwardation, supply impacts, and whether prices will sustain gains. Critical for energy markets as retail and pros parse geopolitical supply risks.
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Recent video and podcast calls from respected oil and commodity analysts
China demand caps oil prices despite shocks
Lin Ye of Rystad Energy discusses how weakening Chinese demand is placing a ceiling on global oil prices. This occurs even amid ongoing supply disruptions from geopolitical events. She highlights rebalancing in the crude market driven by China.
Watch/Listen →
Rystad experts on H1 2026 pressures
Rystad Energy hosts a mid-year review on geopolitics, oil markets, OPEC+, Hormuz risks and upstream signals. Senior experts provide data-driven insights on forces shaping energy markets into H2 2026. Focus includes oversupply narrative shift and risk premiums.
Watch/Listen →
Where commodity traders watch asymmetric risk · live odds via Polymarket
Hormuz Crisis
US-Iran tensions disrupting Strait of Hormuz oil flows. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Fed Policy
Fed rate decisions move USD strength and industrial energy demand expectations. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Hurricane Season 2026
US Gulf Coast hurricane landfall risk for upstream NG + oil supply. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
Pandemic Watch
Tail-risk demand shock for jet fuel, gasoline, LNG. WHO general + named-pathogen probabilities. Polymarket odds, last 7 days.
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Morgan Downey's Commodity News is published by ComCurv, Inc. Curated and rewritten from public sources; every story links to its original publisher. Informational only · not financial, investment or trading advice.
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